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Projecting a full stat-line for Carson Wentz in the 2022 season

By Lou Scataglia

NFL Power Rankings: Quarterback Carson Wentz of the Washington Commanders (Center) stands with head coach Ron Rivera (L) and Co-owner and co-CEO Tanya Snyder (R) after being introduced at Inova Sports Performance Center on March 17, 2022 in Ashburn, Virginia. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
NFL Power Rankings: Quarterback Carson Wentz of the Washington Commanders (Center) stands with head coach Ron Rivera (L) and Co-owner and co-CEO Tanya Snyder (R) after being introduced at Inova Sports Performance Center on March 17, 2022 in Ashburn, Virginia. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images) /
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Carson Wentz is perhaps on his last straw as a starting quarterback in the NFL. What kind of production will he output in 2022?

Carson Wentz has had an interesting career thus far.  After his Eagles won the Super Bowl in 2017, it appears as though the league found its next great quarterback.  Just a few short seasons after that, Wentz is hardly thought of as a franchise quarterback anymore.

His 2020 season was a disaster in Philadelphia.  He was then shipped to the Colts in 2021, where he was very efficient on paper, but had a late-season collapse which helped in his departure from Indianapolis, to his new home in Washington.

Carson Wentz, in make-or-break season, could have a big year

Now on his third team in three years, Wentz is perhaps on his last chance as a starting quarterback in the NFL.

Statistically, Wentz is a fine quarterback.  He’s got a career winning record and a nearly 3:1 touchdown to interception ratio.

Wentz is currently in that middle tier of quarterbacks.  Sometimes they may look like franchise guys, and other times they look like the worst quarterbacks in the league.

I am a Wentz fan and think he will play just fine for the Commanders in 2022, but what kind of production can we expect from the seventh-year veteran?

To begin I want to look at how many passing attempts per game the Washington Commanders have averaged in the Ron Rivera era.

In 2020, they threw the ball 37.9 times per game.  In 2021, they threw the ball 32.4 times per game.

That averages out to be 35.1 passes per game, which rounds down to 35.

We can reasonably expect the Commanders to throw the ball 35 times per game in 2022.

Carson Wentz has a 62.6% career completion percentage.  On 35 throws per game, he’d complete 22 passes.

We can project Carson Wentz to go 22/35 per game in 2022.  Over a 17-game season, that would be 374/595.

Carson Wentz has thrown 607 passes in a season twice before, so this workload is in his range.

As for passing yards, if we take Wentz’s career passing yard total of 20,374, and divide it by his career completions of 1,884, we get 10.81 yards per completion.

If Wentz is projected to complete 374 passes this year, and roughly 10.81 yards per completion, he will throw around 4,043 yards in 2022.  He has thrown for 4,000 yards in a season before, but this number would be a career-high for him.

So far, I am projecting that Carson Wentz completes 374/595 passes for 4,043 yards.

Now, for the touchdowns and interceptions.

Carson Wentz has a touchdown percentage of 4.7%, meaning on 4.7% of his attempts, he will throw a touchdown pass.

Well, if Wentz attempts 595 passes this season, he would throw for 27.96, or 28 touchdown passes.

His interceptions are calculated the same way.  His interception rate is 1.9%, which means Wentz would throw 11.31, or 11 interceptions in 2022.

If we put this all together, this is what he gets:

374/595, 4,043 yards, 28 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 90.8 passer rating.

If Carson Wentz had this output for the Washington Commanders in 2022, I think they would win the NFC East.

I believe this to be an attainable stat-line for Carson Wentz.  Washington has a very good offensive line, a deep receiving core, athletic running backs, and a loaded defense on paper.

Wentz might not be a top 10 quarterback, or even top 15, but he can sure still play.

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