Predicting a full stat-line for Derek Carr in the 2022 NFL season

The Las Vegas Raiders are in a new era but are still quarterbacked by Derek Carr. What kind of numbers will he put up in the 2022 season?

The Las Vegas Raiders are an interesting team to look at and study.  In 2021, they went 10-7 and snuck into the NFL playoffs.

The Raiders then underwent a big change in the offseason, essentially becoming the New England Raiders with the hiring of Josh McDaniels and new General Manager Dave Ziegler.

They also added names like Davante Adams and Chandler Jones in the NFL free agency period.  However, even after all of that, they still seem to be a clear fourth in the AFC West.  The biggest reason for this is perhaps Derek Carr, who has been the team’s signal-caller in 2014.

With a Patriots-style offense now in Las Vegas, what kind of production could be expected from Derek Carr in 2022?  Carr has always been a solid quarterback, and it now seems like he has genuine stability with the coaching administration.

Carr’s numbers weren’t great in 2021, tossing 23 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, but he and the Raiders did do enough to win double-digit games.

I think it’s a safe bet to peg them for a winning record in 2022, but what kind of team will they be?

Josh McDaniels has always been a quality offensive coordinator but was an awful head coach for the Denver Broncos.

Now getting a second chance, McDaniels has a very good situation in Las Vegas to change the narrative about him as a head coach.

The team’s success may end up revolving around Carr, so let’s take a stab at his production in 2022.

Derek Carr has a career completion percentage of 65%, so I’m going to leave that go.

How many times will the Raiders throw the ball per game?  For this, I am going to look at every year Josh McDaniels was an offensive coordinator to see how many times we could reasonably expect them to throw the ball.

His first year as an OC was in 2006 with the Patriots, so we’ll start there.

In 2006, the Patriots threw the ball 34 times per game.  In 2007, they threw the ball 36.6 times per game. In 2008, they threw the ball 33.4 times per game. (Now that I think of it, let’s add in his lone full year as a head coach in 2009 for this as well.)

In 2009, as the head coach of the Denver Broncos, the Broncos threw the ball 34.9 times per game.

In 2011, as the OC for the Rams, they threw the ball 34.3 times per game.

Then, from 2012-2021, McDaniels served as the OC for the Patriots yet again.

So, if we take the average of the numbers above and the times per game they threw the ball from 2012-2021, we get 36.06, or 36 times per game.

So, in his career-leading offenses, we can reasonably expect the 2022 Las Vegas Raiders to throw the ball 36 times per game.

The next thing to do is to take Derek Carr’s 65% career completion percentage out of 36 passes.

Derek Carr is then expected to go 23/36 per game with this average.

The next thing to do is to find his yards.  We’ll do that by finding his yards gained per completion.  He’s got 31,700 career passing yards, and he’s got 2,896 career completions.

If we divided those two numbers, we get 10.95 yards gained per completion.  This means that every time Derek Carr completes a pass, it will gain 10.95 yards.

If I’m projecting that he’ll complete 23 passes per game and gain 10.95 yards per completion, he’ll throw 251.85, or 252 yards per game.

If we take that over a 17-game season, Derek Carr will throw for 4,284 yards.  He’s thrown for 4,000 yards in four straight seasons, so this number is not out of the ordinary.

To put everything together so far, Derek Carr will pass 23/36 per game, which is 391/612 over the course of the season, for 4,284 passing yards.

Now it’s time for the touchdowns and interceptions, which are calculated the same way.

Derek Carr has a touchdown rate of 4.3%, meaning that 4.3% of his attempted passes go for touchdowns.

I am expecting him to attempt 612 passes in 2022, so 4.3% of that is 26.32, or 26 touchdown passes.

His interception rate is 1.9%.  1.9% of 612 attempted passes projected in 2022 is 11.62, or 12 interceptions.

So, if we put everything together, I am projecting that Derek Carr will complete 391/612 passes for 4,284 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in the 2022 NFL season.

This would be a 90.5 passer rating, which is just under his career passer rating of 92.4.

These numbers won’t excite anyone, but they’re solid, and solid is exactly what Derek Carr has been in his career.