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Predicting a full stat-line for Kirk Cousins in the 2022 NFL season

By Lou Scataglia

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - DECEMBER 26: Kirk Cousins #8 of the Minnesota Vikings throws a pass against the Los Angeles Rams in the second half of the game at U.S. Bank Stadium on December 26, 2021 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images
MINNEAPOLIS, MN - DECEMBER 26: Kirk Cousins #8 of the Minnesota Vikings throws a pass against the Los Angeles Rams in the second half of the game at U.S. Bank Stadium on December 26, 2021 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images /
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The Minnesota Vikings are entering in a new era with Kevin O’Connell as head coach. What kind of production can we expect from Kirk Cousins in 2022?

Kirk Cousins is a very efficient quarterback.  He’s got the 7th highest passer rating all-time and has three straight seasons of a 100+ passer rating.

He’s averaged over 30 touchdowns a season for the Minnesota Vikings since arriving back in 2018 and is set to surely benefit from an offensive-minded head coach in Kevin O’Connell.

The Vikings’ offense in the Cousins era has never been the issue, but rather it was their defense as the primary issue for lack of team success over the past couple of seasons.

But, with an offensive-minded head coach now in place, the Vikings are following the blueprint that most successful teams have put in place.

A descendant of Sean McVay, O’Connell is a respected offensive figure.

I want to look at what kind of production we could reasonably expect from Kirk Cousins in 2022 with Kevin O’Connell now in charge.

The first thing I want to do is to look at the three seasons KOC has served as an offensive coordinator, for Washington in 2019 and for the Rams from 2020-2021.

In 2019, the first year he was an OC, his offense threw the ball 29.9 times per game.

In 2020, the Rams threw the ball 35.7 times per game, and in 2021, the Rams threw the ball 35.7 times per game.

If we average these numbers, we get 33.76, or 34, meaning we can reasonably expect a Kevin O’Connell offense to throw the ball roughly 34 times per game.

Kirk Cousins has a career completion percentage of 66.9%, so we’ll leave that the same.

If we take 66.9% of 34, we get 22.74, or 23 completions.

Meaning, I think Kirk Cousins will average a 23/34 passing line per game in 2022.

If we multiply this over 17 games, we’d get 391/578.

The next thing to do is to find how many yards Kirk Cousins has gained per completion.

To do this, we would take his career passing yard total of 32,593 and divide that by his completions, which is 2,825.  That figures out to be 11.54 yards, meaning every time Kirk Cousins completes a pass, it’ll gain roughly 11.54 yards.

If we take that number and multiply it by 23 completions per game in 2022, we’d get 265.42, or 265 yards per game in 2022.

Over a 17 game season, that’s 4,512 yards.  Kirk Cousins has thrown for 4,000 yards six times during his career.

So far, I am projecting that Kirk Cousins completes 391/578 passes for 4,512 yards.

Now for the touchdowns and interceptions, which are calculated the same way.

Kirk Cousins has a touchdown rate of 5.3%, meaning 5.3% of his attempted passes go for touchdowns.

If we’re predicting that he’ll throw 578 passes in 2022, 5.3% of that is 30.63, or 31 touchdown passes.

He has a career interception rate of 2.2% of attempted passes.  2.2% of 578 is 12.71, or 13 interceptions.

So, if we put everything together, I’m predicting that Kirk Cousins will complete 391/578 passes for 4,512 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions in 2022.

That would be a passer rating of 98.9, just over his career passer rating of 98.6

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