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Predicting a full stat-line for Tom Brady for the 2022 season

By Lou Scataglia

NFL 2022; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) reacts during the first half against the Los Angeles Rams in a NFC Divisional playoff football game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
NFL 2022; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) reacts during the first half against the Los Angeles Rams in a NFC Divisional playoff football game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports /
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Tom Brady is set to play for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2022 after retiring for a bit of the offseason. What kind of numbers will he put up?

Tom Brady retired after the 2021 NFL season.

A few weeks later, he got bored and unretired.  Now set to enter his 786th season in the NFL, Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are set to be an absolutely dominant team yet again.

After winning the Super Bowl in 2020, they got bounced from the 2021 playoffs by the eventual Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams.

It didn’t feel right that Tom Brady would have retired after that, and I think if the Bucs win the Super Bowl this year, he will indeed retire.

Just as a fun-fact/side comment, Tom Brady-quarterbacked teams have won the Super Bowl in every even-numbered season since 2014.

2014, 2016, 2018, 2020…

Well, the 2022 season is an even number, so?

Let’s take a stab at predicting his full-stat line for the 2022 season.

Brady has a 66.7% completion percentage as a member of the Bucs, so I’ll keep that the same.

As for the attempts, he attempted 610 passes in 2020 and 719 in 2021.  If we average those out, we get 664.5, or 665 attempts for 2022.

If we take his completion percentage of 66.7% into his 665 attempts, he’ll likely complete 444 passes in 2022.

As for his yards, he averaged 11.55 yards per completion in 2020 and 10.96 yards per completion in 2021.

So, if we average those two numbers, we get 11.26 yards per completion in 2022.

If he’s projected to complete  444 passes, we’d get 4,999 yards in 2022.

So far, I think Tom Brady will go 444/665 for 4,999 yards.

The touchdowns and interceptions are figured out using the same method.

During his two years in Tampa Bay, his touchdown rate is 6.2%, meaning 6.2% of his attempts go for touchdowns.

If that number stays the same for 2022, and his projected attempts of 665 hold up, he’ll throw 41.23 touchdown passes in 2022.  Or, 41 touchdown passes.

His interception rate in Tampa is 1.8% of his attempts, which are 665.  1.8% of 665 is 11.97, or 12 interceptions.

He’s thrown 12 interceptions in each of his two years in Tampa, so that makes sense.

Let’s put it all together now!

In 2022, I am projecting that Tom Brady goes 444/665, 65% completion, for 4,999 yards, 41 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions.

That would be a passer rating of 102.1.

This is on par with his production in Tampa, and with almost everything staying the same, this feels like a very good bet for the 2022 season.

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