3 reasons Adam Thielen could outperform his fantasy football ADP
By Devin Lange
Adam Thielen can rack up touchdowns for your fantasy football team
Adam Thielen scored the 7th most touchdowns by a wide receiver in 2021, with 10 touchdowns. He accomplished this, despite being the only wide receiver in the top 12 to play less than 16 games, by only playing 13 games.
He had the 4th highest touchdowns per game average with 0.77 touchdowns/game, finishing behind elite WRs such as Cooper Kupp (.94 touchdowns/game), Mike Evans (.87 touchdowns/game), and Deebo Samuel (.87 touchdowns/game).
If he continued this average over 17 games, his projection would be to score the 4th most touchdowns by a wide receiver, with 13 touchdowns. His large touchdown volume in 2021 was not a fluke, considering he scored the 3rd most touchdowns by a wide receiver in 2020.
He was able to accomplish this because of opportunities. Since having Kirk Cousins as his quarterback, he has averaged 1.12 red-zone targets a game. This has equated to an average of .72 touchdowns/game.
This ranks him among many elite wide receivers, including his counterpart Justin Jefferson. For fantasy owners who think Jefferson’s emergence will cause a regression for Thielen, that has yet to happen.
Adam Thielen had the second highest receiving grade in the red zone in 2021, with 84.3. He finished behind only D.K. Metcalf (87.9) and ahead of Cooper Kupp (83.5). He did this by catching 86.7% of his 15 red-zone targets and catching 100% of his catchable targets.
Whether you are in a standard, half-point, or full-point PPR league, a touchdown counts as 6 points. Thielen’s 10 touchdowns in 2021 equated to 60 points alone. His 67 receptions for 726 yards equated to an additional 72.6 points in standard leagues, 106.1 in half-point leagues, and 139.6 in PPR leagues. That’s an upward of 199.6 points in 13 games played, without any additional points for big plays or big plays.