NFL Week 1: Three best bets to make on kickoff Sunday

Alvin Kamara could be in for a big day against a poor Falcons rush defense.

• Saints should be in control on defense
• Keep ball out of mistake-prone Winston’s hands
• Micheal Thomas is not fully healthy, may lean on run game
• Awful Falcons front seven 

In Week 1, the New Orleans Saints are traveling to Atlanta to take on the Falcons in a divisional game that projects to be a low-scoring Saints victory. This game script is already conducive to a high-yardage game from star running back Alvin Kamara, but there are a handful of other reasons that have led me to take the over on his rushing yard prop this week.

After analyzing player props on the Saints in the offseason, it has become clear that they project this team to be a run-first offense that relies on their defense to win games. Looking back to the start of 2021 where Jameis Winston had them at 5-2 with only 3 interceptions in those seven games, it becomes clear that the Saints have no desire to utilize the 2019 Jameis Winston that threw for over 5,000 yards and 30 interceptions and would rather keep his passing numbers lower and let the defense and run game control the outcome.

Luckily for them, they get a great Week 1 matchup against a Falcons defensive front that is easily one of the worst in the league that should allow them to employ this strategy. The last time Kamara faced the Falcons he rushed 30 times for 146 yards, so I am more than happy to take his over at 59.5 rushing yards in Week 1.

Additional Bets: 

Jameis Winston NO Interception +120

Falcons vs Saints Under 43 -110