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NFC Playoff scenarios for Week 18 of 2022 season

By Sayre Bedinger

NFC playoff scenarios; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) throws a pass during the first quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
NFC playoff scenarios; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) throws a pass during the first quarter against the Minnesota Vikings at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports /
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The 2022 NFL season has flown by and we’re just one week away from talking about matchups in the NFL playoffs again. As we approach Week 18 of the 2022 season, there are so many playoff scenarios yet to consider which is exactly what the NFL wanted when they added two things that were not unanimously well-received. First off, the league added an 18th week and 17th game to the season for every team. Second, they added an additional Wild Card spot in each conference which has given us some fascinating NFC playoff scenarios ahead of Week 18.

Who has already clinched playoff spots? Which teams are fighting for spots yet? How will seeding be decided? We’re going to answer all of those questions and more.

NFC Playoff scenarios for Week 18 of 2022 regular season

Which teams have locked in playoff spots in the NFC?

  • Philadelphia Eagles: 13-3
  • San Francisco 49ers: 12-4 (clinched NFC West)
  • Dallas Cowboys: 12-4
  • Minnesota Vikings: 12-4 (clinched NFC North)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8-8 (clinched NFC South, will be the 4th seed)
  • New York Giants: 9-6-1 (will be the 6th seed)

As of right now, what do we know to be true about the NFC playoff race? Well, we know that entering Week 18, there’s only one available spot and there are three teams vying for it. We’ll get to that in a moment. We also know for sure that the 49ers are NFC West champions and the Buccaneers are NFC South champions. The Vikings have locked up the NFC North.

The only divisional battle that remains is the NFC East between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys. The way that division plays out could determine whether the Eagles are the top seed, perhaps the Cowboys, or even the 49ers.

Which NFC teams can still make the playoffs in Week 18?

1. Green Bay Packers

  • Win vs. Lions and in

2. Seattle Seahawks

  • Win vs. Rams + Packers loss to Lions

3. Detroit Lions

  • Win vs. Packers + Seahawks loss to Rams

As you can see here, it’s the Green Bay Packers that have the clearest path to the playoffs. If they beat the Detroit Lions, they’re in. The toughest path to the postseason is going to be the Lions in this scenario. Not only do they have to go on the road and beat the Packers, but then they also need the Seahawks to lose at home to the Rams.

Which NFC team will be the no. 1 seed in 2022?

1. Philadelphia Eagles

  • Clinch the no. 1 seed with a win vs. Giants OR
  • Cowboys loss vs. Commanders

2. San Francisco 49ers

  • Clinch no. 1 seed with a win vs. Cardinals + Eagles loss to Giants

3. Dallas Cowboys

  • Clinch no. 1 seed with a win vs. Commanders + Eagles loss to Giants + 49ers loss to Cardinals
  • Clinch NFC East title with a win vs. Commanders + Eagles loss to Giants

What’s the most likely outcome here? Well, it’s probably the safest bet of the week that the 49ers will beat the Cardinals, so what’s going to be the fallout of that? The Eagles could still be quarterbacked by Gardner Minshew in Week 18 and the Giants aren’t resting starters despite the fact that they can’t improve their positioning in the postseason at this point.

The least likely scenario here is the Cowboys ending up with the no. 1 seed in the NFC. They seem destined either to be the 2nd seed in the NFC (with a win + Eagles loss) or the top Wild Card team and 5th seed.

If the Eagles win, they are the no. 1 seed in the NFC. Simple as that. Doesn’t get much better than controlling your own destiny, only the Eagles have faltered the last two weeks with Gardner Minshew under center.

Most likely NFC playoff scenario after Week 18 action?

Using our Week 18 NFL picks and predictions, let’s try to predict the NFC playoff seeding.

Predicting Week 18 action

  • Eagles lose to Giants (if Jalen Hurts doesn’t play)
  • Cowboys beat Commanders
  • 49ers beat Cardinals
  • Packers beat Lions
  • Seahawks beat Rams
  • Vikings beat Bears

If this scenario happens, here are your NFC playoff matchups for the 2022 season:

(1) San Francisco 49ers: BYE

(2) Dallas Cowboys vs. (7) Green Bay Packers

(3) Minnesota Vikings vs. (6) New York Giants

(4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. (5) Philadelphia Eagles

This would, frankly, be one of the best scenarios for the NFL in terms of the seven teams making it in. You’ve got some of the most popular teams in league history, legendary quarterbacks, and some dark horses, including a team like the Vikings which has never won a championship before.

Least likely NFC playoff scenario after Week 18

  • Cowboys beat Commanders
  • Eagles lose to Giants
  • 49ers lose to Cardinals
  • Packers lose to Lions
  • Seahawks lose to Rams
  • Vikings lose to Bears

If this wild scenario happens, let’s look at what the fallout would be:

(1) Dallas Cowboys: BYE

(2) San Francisco 49ers vs. (7) Detroit Lions

(3) Minnesota Vikings vs. (6) New York Giants

(4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. (5) Philadelphia Eagles

More NFC playoff scenarios after Week 18

  • Cowboys beat Commanders
  • Eagles beat Giants
  • 49ers beat Cardinals
  • Seahawks beat Rams
  • Vikings beat Bears
  • Lions beat Packers

(1) Philadelphia Eagles (BYE)

(2) San Francisco 49ers vs. (7) Seattle Seahawks

(3) Minnesota Vikings vs. (6) New York Giants

(4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. (5) Dallas Cowboys

Another iteration of this prediction here would simply have the Packers beating the Lions, which would swap them with the Seahawks as the no. 7 seed in the NFC. I would say that particular scenario is up there among the “most likely to happen” categories.

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