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NFL playoffs: All 11 possible AFC Divisional Round matchups

By Asher Fair

Mike Danna, Chiefs, Justin Herbert, Chargers, NFL (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)
Mike Danna, Chiefs, Justin Herbert, Chargers, NFL (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images) /
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There are eight different ways this weekend’s AFC Wild Card games can potentially unfold, setting up two of the four NFL Divisional Round games next weekend.

The AFC Wild Card schedule is set, with the No. 5 seed Los Angeles Chargers set to travel to Jacksonville to take on the No. 4 seed Jaguars on Saturday night to open things up.

Then on Sunday afternoon, the No. 2 seed Buffalo Bills are set to host the No. 7 seed Miami Dolphins in an AFC East clash, and on Sunday night, the No. 3 Cincinnati Bengals are set to host the No. 6 seed Baltimore Ravens in an AFC North showdown.

There are eight different combinations of winners of these three games, and the results will ultimately determine what the two matchups are in the Divisional Round. There are 11 possible round two matchups, as certain seeding pairings simply can’t happen with how the playoff format works.

With the No. 1 seed Kansas City Chiefs having clinched a first-round bye and thus a home game in the Divisional Round, one of those two games is set to be played at Arrowhead Stadium, with the Chiefs taking on the AFC team with the lowest remaining seed.

There are four possible matchups here, not six, since a No. 1 seed can’t play a No. 2 seed or a No. 3 seed until the conference championship.

Take a look at each possibility.

NOTE: All percentages based on FiveThirtyEight’s projections.

Chiefs vs. Jaguars

  • What needs to happen: Bills win, Bengals win, Jaguars win
  • Chance of happening: 40.96%

Chiefs vs. Chargers

  • What needs to happen: Bills win, Bengals win, Chargers win
  • Chance of happening: 28.46%

Chiefs vs. Ravens

  • What needs to happen: Bills win, Ravens win
  • Chance of happening: 19.58%

Chiefs vs. Dolphins

  • What needs to happen: Dolphins win
  • Chance of happening: 11%

The other game is set to come from this pool of seven possibilities. The reason why there are seven options instead of 12 is because a No. 2 seed can’t play a No. 6 seed until the conference championship, and a No. 7 seed’s only possible Divisional Round opponent is the No. 1 seed.

Take a look at each possibility.

Bills vs. Bengals

  • What needs to happen: Bills win, Bengals win
  • Chance of happening: 69.42%

Bills vs. Jaguars

  • What needs to happen: Bills win, Jaguars win, Ravens win
  • Chance of happening: 11.55%

Bills vs. Chargers

  • What needs to happen: Bills win, Chargers win, Ravens win
  • Chance of happening: 8.03%

Bengals vs. Jaguars

  • What needs to happen: Bengals win, Jaguars win, Dolphins win
  • Chance of happening: 5.06%

Bengals vs. Chargers

  • What needs to happen: Bengals win, Chargers win, Dolphins win
  • Chance of happening: 3.52%

Jaguars vs. Ravens

  • What needs to happen: Jaguars win, Ravens win, Dolphins win
  • Chance of happening: 1.43%

Chargers vs. Ravens

  • What needs to happen: Chargers win, Ravens win, Dolphins win
  • Percent chance: 0.99%
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