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2023 NFL picks, score predictions for Divisional Round

By Sayre Bedinger

NFL picks; Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid shakes hands with Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson after a game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
NFL picks; Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid shakes hands with Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson after a game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Wild Card round of the NFL playoffs is finally in the books. There were comebacks, there were thrilling finishes, and there were upsets. Thankfully for NFL picks purposes, things went exceptionally well.

We managed to correctly predict every winning team from the Wild Card round of the playoffs except the Dallas Cowboys. Although let’s be honest, there were only a couple of really tough predictions to make. First of all, betting on the Jaguars beating the Chargers was only a slight risk. A popular pick as the Jaguars have become sort of “fan favorites” for NFL fans in general, but a risky one anyway. Then the Giants over the Vikings on the road.

What does the Divisional Round have in store? Let’s look at an updated NFL playoff bracket and make our picks for the NFL’s ‘elite eight’.

Updated NFL playoff bracket: Divisional Round

AFC

(4) Jacksonville Jaguars at (1) Kansas City Chiefs

(3) Cincinnati Bengals at (2) Buffalo Bills

NFC

(6) New York Giants at (1) Philadelphia Eagles

(5) Dallas Cowboys at (2) San Francisco 49ers

NFL picks and Predictions for Divisional Round Playoff Games

NFL picks
NFL picks; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) is introduced before an NFL first round playoff football matchup Saturday, Jan. 14, 2023 at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jacksonville Jaguars edged the Los Angeles Chargers on a field goal 31-30. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union] /

(4) Jacksonville Jaguars at (1) Kansas City Chiefs

Saturday, January 21, 4:30 PM ET (NBC)

The Kansas City Chiefs are the early betting favorites to win this matchup by a pretty wide margin. According to Draft Kings, the Chiefs are -9.5 for this matchup with an over/under of 51.5 total points. So Vegas is not buying the Cinderella story that is the Jacksonville Jaguars right now.

While they’re ready for the clock to strike midnight on this Jaguars team, basically calling a 10-point Chiefs win at this point, I’m not so sure.

The Jaguars did lose to the Chiefs earlier this season already by 10 points, so perhaps that’s where this line is being drawn from. At the same time, the Jaguars have evolved into a completely different team over the last 10 weeks, winning eight out of their last 10 games and finishing the 2022 season ranked 10th in the NFL in scoring offense and 12th in scoring defense.

Why are the Jaguars a dangerous team right now, specifically defensively? They forced a whopping 27 turnovers this season, 5th-most in the NFL. The Chiefs had 23 turnovers this season offensively and still managed to earn the no. 1 seed in the AFC and finish ranked 1st in total offense and points scored.

Let’s not diminish the juggernaut that is Andy Reid’s crew. Give Andy Reid a bye week and you’re more often than not going to find yourself in a brutal situation. Give the Chiefs a home game in January, and you’ll be lucky to come out of it with a one-score game.

The Jaguars pose a legitimate threat to the Chiefs and we saw Trevor Lawrence already get his postseason jitters out of the way in Jacksonville’s stunning come-from-behind win over the Chargers last week.

While Jacksonville certainly could go in and win this game, I’m not betting against the Chiefs at this point. Not at home, and not even with Andy Reid facing a former disciple of his. But I also don’t see this being a bloodbath where the Chiefs win by 10 points.

Prediction: Chiefs win 30-23

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