Is Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs a Hall of Famer right now?
Patrick Mahomes was drafted in 2017 by the Kansas City Chiefs as the 10th pick in the NFL Draft. To put themselves in a position to select him tenth overall, they had to make a deal with the Buffalo Bills, how ironic these two teams are now considered two of the top teams in the league. While some may think Buffalo lost out in the deal, you have to consider both teams were in very different places at that time. The Bills were trying to build a roster and were essentially in a rebuild, and when you are trying to rebuild, draft picks are a premium. The Bills were able to turn those picks into Tre’Davious White, Dion Dawkins, and Tremaine Edmunds.
The Chiefs on the other hand already had superstars like Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill in place, as well as running back, Kareem Hunt. During Mahomes rookie season, the Chiefs were a 10 – 6 playoff team. Rookie quarterbacks are not often fortunate enough to be dropped right into a playoff team, in year one.
He sat for the majority of his first season, while he was mentored by a then-starting quarterback for the Chiefs, Alex Smith. He wouldn’t get his first start in the league until Week 17. Patrick Mahomes would take the reins from there on and has become one of the faces and superstars of the NFL.
But is he a future Hall of Famer right now? If he never played another down, has he done enough in just five full seasons as the starter, six total, to warrant a spot in the NFL Hall of Fame?
Let’s take a look at some of the current players in the Hall of Fame. Only five players are currently in the Hall with five or fewer seasons. Stop me if you’ve heard these names, Mac Speedie, Arnie Weinmeister, Bill Willis, Marion Motley, and Ernie Nevers. Not one of those five played after 1955 and Ernie Nevers is likely the only name that might be recognized by more fans than not.
At six years total in the league, we have five more players in the Hall. After that, seven years seems to benchmark. At this point, we have nine players in, nearly as many from six years and fewer. What about a player like Bo Jackson, who many believe should be in the Hall? He tallied only four seasons and though the stats don’t bare it out, he was arguably one of, if not the best back in the league during the late 80s. His total yards and touchdowns don’t speak to how dominant he was at that time, given the presence of Marcus Allen. His career 5.4 yards per carry average, matches that of Jamaal Charles, who is the all-time leader with 750 attempts or more.
Let’s look at Patrick Mahomes’ career numbers. In six seasons, he’s amassed 24,241 yards, and 192 touchdowns, while completing 66.3 percent of his passes. He has three Super Bowl appearances, winning at least one, maybe two in a couple of weeks. Additionally, he was a league MVP and Super Bowl MVP in two different seasons.
How do those numbers stack up against some of the current Hall of Fame quarterbacks? Of the 38 quarterbacks in the Hall, only one has fewer passing yards than Mahomes currently has. Only four have fewer passing touchdowns. Here is an interesting little nugget for you, Pro Football Reference has a metric they refer to as HOFm. This metric measures the likelihood of a player being inducted into the Hall of Fame at present. 100 being the average modern-era inductee, Mahomes is given a HOFm of 71.28. This numbered is derived from several metrics, such as various accolades, championships, and statistical milestones, just to name a few.
There are some impressive names with a higher HOFm than Mahomes, such as Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees. But some of the names that might surprise you that are higher, are Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Russell Wilson, and Matthew Stafford.
There are only three quarterbacks currently in the Hall of Fame that have a lower HOFm than Mahomes. Those are Len Dawson, Jim Kelly, and Troy Aikman.
Is the HOFm an end all be all metric, of course not but after researching the numbers and comparing the careers, I don’t believe Patrick Mahomes is a shoo-in for Hall of Fame induction just yet but check back with me after next season, his seventh-year in the league.