10 players who will be wildly overpaid in 2023 NFL Free Agency
2. Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith signed a three-year deal worth reportedly $105 million in total money
Alright, so we get to react to this one in real time, because as this post is being written, Geno Smith has agreed to a brand-new deal with the Seattle Seahawks for the next three years. There are already some conflicting reports about the value of this contract, which should come as no shocker if you’ve been following a lot of the very inconsistent reporting from major NFL people in the 2023 offseason so far.
The #Seahawks’ deal with Geno Smith has a base value of $25 million per season (three years, $75 million) with $40 million fully guaranteed at signing, sources say.
— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) March 7, 2023
Smith will earn $28 million in the first year of the deal. He has $30 million in incentives.
So, a three-year deal worth $35 million per season was initially reported, but now we’re seeing that the base of this contract is for $25 million per year with those additional $30 million coming as incentives for Geno Smith.
Well, now I’m kind of torn about having him on this list. I think at $35 million per season, you’re about in the right range for what Geno Smith did in the 2022 season which was play out of his mind en route to the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year award. Given the way Geno Smith played last year, I think the Seahawks actually kind of made him bend over backwards here to not get the franchise tag. He got about $8 million more than the franchise tag number in total guarantees. Instead of getting $32 million this year on the tag, he’s getting $28 million in the first year of the deal.
Did Geno Smith just go from projecting as one of the most overpaid players in 2023 NFL Free Agency to being one of the most underpaid? I think so. The Seahawks gave Geno a lot of money, there’s no question. But let’s see what happens now with Daniel Jones and the Giants in the coming days. I just feel like Geno Smith really sold himself short here. He got an incentive-based contract when, if he was willing to do that, why not just force the Seahawks to slap the tag on you and do it again next offseason?
He could have more than doubled his guaranteed cash that way by betting on himself, which is what you’re doing when you’re accepting a three-year deal with $30 million of incentives. I still think Geno Smith projected as one of the most overpaid free agents in the league, we just happened to be wrong about that rather quickly.