Miami Dolphins: is it time to extend Tua Tagovailoa?

Last season, Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was not only one of the most effective signal-callers in the NFL, a stark contrast to his first two seasons in the league, but fans of the team were heard chanting MVP from the stands. He won AFC Player of the Week in Week 2, a week in which he threw for six touchdowns, and had a few other achievements such as…

• NFL Passer Rating Leader at 105.5
• Yards per Attempt Leader at 8.9
• Yards per Completion Leader at 13.7
• Passing TD Percentage at 6.3% (Tied with Mahomes)

That’s not including the many data points where he finished in the top 10 in the league, such as…

• Tied for 8th in passing TD
• 5th in passing yards per game
• 6th best in sack percentage
• 3rd overall in QBR

The Miami Dolphins picked up Tua’s 5th-year option very early this offseason, as I thought they should, confirming their belief in the franchise quarterback. However, with quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts, a 2nd round pick in the 2020 draft (the same draft as Tua) getting extensions, is now the time to extend Tua, too? Let’s explore that.

What should be considered with a Tua Tagovailoa/Miami Dolphins extension?

I wanted to break the data down first because it seems there’s still this belief out there that Tua is some sort of no-talent bust – which couldn’t be further from the truth. The proof is in the stats and film you saw last season and in bursts the previous two.

However, I know what you’re thinking – can he stay healthy? The only way you do this is if you believe that he can. For the sake of discussion, let’s proceed under the expectation that the team believes that yes he can in fact stay healthy and play a full season.

With the average annual cost of franchise quarterbacks constantly on the rise, like Jalen Hurts clocking in at a whopping (and deserved) $51M per season, the longer you wait the more you may end up paying (i.e. Dak Prescott). By extending Tua now, especially with a smaller sample size of success, you may be able to pay a lot less than you would if you waited until next offseason (assuming he elevates further).

Conversely, if you extend him now, with that smaller sample size of success, you may find that you got it wrong or that you could have upgraded.

I’ve remained consistent in my stance on Tua – I believe in the talent, I believe in what the film shows and I believe in the player and person Tua is. I mean that. So my answer is simple: if Chris Grier believes he can stay healthy, believes he is their franchise quarterback, and can find a deal that works for the player and the team, why wouldn’t you? If he believes that now, why wait?