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3 NFL teams that got better on paper, but will have worse records in 2023

By Sayre Bedinger

PHILADELPHIA, PA - JANUARY 21: Kayvon Thibodeaux #5 of the New York Giants looks on against the Philadelphia Eagles during the NFC Divisional Playoff game at Lincoln Financial Field on January 21, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - JANUARY 21: Kayvon Thibodeaux #5 of the New York Giants looks on against the Philadelphia Eagles during the NFC Divisional Playoff game at Lincoln Financial Field on January 21, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /
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MINNEAPOLIS, MN – DECEMBER 24: Justin Jefferson #18 of the Minnesota Vikings warms up before the start of the game against the New York Giants at U.S. Bank Stadium on December 24, 2022 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Vikings defeated the Giants 27-24. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images) /

2. Minnesota Vikings (2022 record: 13-4)

NFC North. . 2. player. Scouting Report. Pick Analysis. Minnesota Vikings. 60

It’s tough to look at the Minnesota Vikings in 2022 and not see them as low-hanging fruit for this kind of category. I think it’s pretty safe to say that the Vikings are the most likely NFL team to regress record-wise in 2023 compared to their 2022 record. The Vikings were easily the luckiest team in the NFL in 2022, but to their credit, you don’t just accidentally or luckily win 13 games.

It took the Vikings closing out 11 one-score games to earn that record. They were 11-0 in the regular season in one-score games, an impressive feat and accomplishment that should undoubtedly be celebrated. It certainly got Kevin O’Connell some coach of the year consideration.

But it can also serve as a warning sign that regression is on the horizon. Winning 11 one-score games is simply not common in the NFL.

The Vikings’ four regular season losses were absolutely ugly, and that was largely thanks to the play of their 28th-ranked scoring defense. The Vikings were 31st in total yards allowed, 31st against the pass, and 20th against the run.

They set out to combat those issues in 2023 by adding players like defensive end Marcus Davenport and cornerback Byron Murphy, but are the additions they made defensively going to be enough? The biggest move, arguably, was adding Brian Flores as the team’s new defensive coordinator.

The loss of Adam Thielen in free agency was quickly covered up by the drafting of first-round receiver Jordan Addison, giving the Vikings a great young trio of receivers for Kirk Cousins to spread the ball around to.

But despite this team looking better on paper in 2023, I think it’s clear after their miraculous 11-0 record in one-score games last year that they’re going to lose at least five games in 2023, if not a handful more.

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