Buffalo Bills (vs. New England Patriots)
The Buffalo Bills have a problem on the defensive side of the ball. Buffalo is a bit injured over there, but the defense also hasn't been that good for most of the season. Well, in Week 5, this team does have a pretty major test against the New England Patriots. Second-year QB Drake Maye has looked flat-out fabulous thus far. In fact, his numbers might be a lot better than you expect:
91/123 (74%)
988 yards
7 touchdowns
2 interceptions
109.4 rating
New England also has the 10th-best scoring offense and defense, so this team is legitimate. I would not gloss over the Pats, as they are a bit better than their record might indicate, and I would also be willing to say that the Bills might not be quite as good as their record indicates.
Buffalo has the 17th-best scoring defense in the NFL, allowing 22.5 points per game. This game has the chance to be a high-scoring affair, and New England is going to keep this game close. While I do believe the Bills close it out, it's going to be by a razor-thin margin.
Prediction: Bills win 28-27
Kansas City Chiefs (@ Jacksonville Jaguars)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have a great, explosive defense thriving off of takeaways. They are a better unit than the Kansas City Chiefs have on offense, so that's really the matchup for me in this one. The Jags get this game at home and are coming off of a solid win over the San Francisco 49ers.
The Chiefs have won their previous two games, but most can see just how shaky KC seems to be. The Jags are going to create some turnovers and will be able to steal a possession or two in this one, and they simply might be a very good team, period.
I would also expect Trevor Lawrence and the offense to settle in at home point. Give me Jacksonville at home.