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2026 NFL Predictions: Quarterbacks most likely to win their first MVP award

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
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4. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

In the 2025 season for the Denver Broncos, Bo Nix led the NFL with seven game-winning drives, and he also ahd five fourth quarter comebacks. He took fewer sacks, threw for more yards, led the league in passing attempts, had a higher success rate, and had a higher QBR.

While some continue to say that Nix had a 'down' year for the Broncos, it was anything but. Denver won 14 games and captured the AFC West title as well, and Nix himself turned into the most clutch quarterback in the league.

Now with Jaylen Waddle added to the mix, Nix has an ideal personnel situation around him, and, frankly, has no excuses not to explode in 2026. We should be able to see career-high numbers across the board with his passing production, and if that's the case, getting some MVP love would follow.

3. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

Caleb Williams was the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and did live up to it in the 2025 season. While the Chicago Bears did leave some meat on the bone, Williams was great. The completion percentage definitely needs to get better, but that could simply improve as time goes on.

Already, Williams is one of the more 'household names' in the NFL, and is already on the cover of Madden. The sort of social aspect of his career could honestly help him in the MVP race.

If the Bears are winning football games, and Williams is playing well, he'd likely find himself in the MVP race in 2026.

2. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence was an MVP candidate to end the 2025 season, finishing fifth in voting. He was also playing out of his mind over the Jacksonville Jaguars' final six games:

6-0
1,600 yards
15 touchdowns
1 interception
113.2 passer rating

If Lawrence would do that over a 17-game season, he'd finish with 4,533 yards, 43 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. So, yeah, that would be plenty enough to win the MVP award. Lawrence does have to do this for a majority of the season, and with his entering year two working with Liam Coen, it's extremely possible.

1. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow finished fourth in MVP voting back in 2022, and again finished in fourth in 2024. Burrow has the raw passing talent to win the MVP, but it's really about not only staying on the field for a full 17 games, but also seeing a complete team.

With the Cincinnati Bengals having revamped the defensive side of the ball, it does finally seem like the Bengals have enough to once again be a juggernaut, and we could soon get to a point with the Bengals where everything is set in place and there are no major weaknesses.

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