AFC South
Houston Texans: 12-5
The Houston Texans started 0-3 in the 2025 season but still managed to win 12 games. However, due to the unexpected breakout season of the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Texans fell short in the division. This year should be a bit different, as the Texans shored up the offensive line in free agency and also added some help at running back in David Montgomery.
Houston's defense even got better with key additons of Kayden McDonald and Reed Blankenship. On paper, this could be the best team in the AFC, and if quarterback CJ Stroud is able to come close to his 2023 performance in 2026, Houston could truly win it all this year.
Jacksonville Jaguars: 10-7
Losing both Travis Etienne and Devin Lloyd is going to hurt the Jaguars, and while this team did win 13 games last year, part of me almost wonders if what we saw from this group last year is similar to what we saw from the Washington Commanders back in 2024. I do not think the Jags are going to only win a handful of games in 2026, but it's worth wondering if a slight regression is coming.
There is now a full year's worth of film out of this team on both sides of the ball, and the roster, while solid overall, doesn't appear to be that overwhelming at any position.
Indianapolis Colts: 8-9
The Indianapolis Colts were 7-1 at one point in 2025 before things reallly fell apart, and I am not sure if this team did enough to prevent another 'so-so' season. Daniel Jones was playing lights-out in the first half of the season last year but is now working his way back from another major injury, and he's largely been a bad quarterback for much of his career.
The Colts clearly know how to win some games, but nothing appears to be quite good enough for this team to truly take that next step and get into the playoffs in what is clearly a loaded AFC.
Tennessee Titans: 4-13
The Tennessee Titans are on the right track, but it could take a couple of seasons before we see this team truly blossom. I am personally high on Cam Ward making a leap in year two with Brian Daboll calling the plays, but the roster definitely still needs a bit of work, and the coaching staff is entering year one together, so this could be viewed as the de-facto year one of the rebuild.
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