4. Indianapolis Colts - .465
The Indianapolis Colts were 7-1 at one point in 2025, so if this team can get Daniel Jones back and healthy for the start of 2026, the team could at least be competent, but given how 'eh' of a quarterback Jones has been, it might be too big an ask for Indy to race out to that kind of start. Given their easier schedule, a 10-win season can't be out of the picture.
5. Atlanta Falcons - .465
Signing Tua Tagovailoa this offseason, the Atlanta Falcons have enough weapons to be a playoff team, and if Tagovailoa can win the job and at least be average, watch out...
6. Detroit Lions - .467
One of my favorite 'bounce back' teams for 2026, the Detroit Lions were 7-4 at one point in 2025 and have one of the five best rosters in the league. The Lions simply have to stay healthier and not be a bottom-10 defense. That's really it.
7. Houston Texans - .474
Shoring up the offensive line and adding David Montgomery in free agency, the Houston Texans truly don't have a notable weakness and could take advantage of one of the easiest schedules in the league, but the ceiling of CJ Stroud has come into question these past two seasons.
8. Tennessee Titans - .476
Another team I believe can breakout in 2026, the Tennessee Titans bought a ton of talent in free agency and also have a young quarterback in Cam Ward who made a ton of high-level throws down the stretch last season.
9. Baltimore Ravens - .479
The Baltimore Ravens endured mounting injuries in 2025, and the team just could not rebound and ran out of time. A slightly better stroke of injury luck should be plenty for Baltimore to take advantage of an easier schedule and slide into the playoffs.
10. Philadelphia Eagles - .481
The 'every other year' Philadelphia Eagles have the 10th-easiest schedule in the NFL and should be able to stack at least 10 wins, but we've seen this team sputter here and there, so Philly is one of the more unknown squads in the league this season.
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