Some teams are red hot right now and looking to be legitimate contenders. Others are heading in the wrong direction and showing real weaknesses. 3 teams have especially impressed me with their recent play and 3 more teams are raising real concerns and cooling off after exciting starts to their seasons
Some teams have me really excited including Joe Burrow's Cincinnati Bengals, CJ Stroud's Houston Texans, and Jordan Love's Green Bay Packers. It's a quarterback driven league and the recent performances from those guys have been impressive.
Meanwhile, The Minnesota Vikings just made a big move for Kirk Cousins. Their offense has been incompetent this season, wasting their elite defense. But Cousins' experience in Minnesota with Kevin O'Connell and Justin Jefferson should lead to a much more effective offense.
3 Teams Trending Up, 3 Trending Down as Week 10 hits
Teams Trending Up
1. Houston Texans
The Houston Texans started the year 0-4 and were in serious trouble, especially when you consider that only one team in NFL history has made the playoffs after an 0-4 start. But the Texans are now 3-5, winning three of their last four, including an impressive divisional win over the Jaguars in London.
Houston's defense has somewhat underwhelmed relative to preseason expectations and its performance last year, ranking 16th in EPA per play allowed and 15th in yards per play allowed according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
This team's identity has shifted from a defense-first approach last year to more of an "Our quarterback is better than yours" mentality this season. C.J. Stroud and the offense have been excellent, especially recently. Over Houston's last four games, the Texans rank fourth in EPA per play, while Stroud ranks third in EPA per pass, 4th in passing yards, and second in passing touchdowns with 11.
Data courtesy of SumerSports. Statistics reflect Houston's last four games (Weeks 5–7 and 9).
The Texans also have the third-easiest remaining schedule according to ESPN, with upcoming games against the Tennessee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles, Indianapolis Colts, Washington Commanders, and Baltimore Ravens. Look out for this team to make a playoff push if Stroud and the offense can keep this up.
2. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals beat the Atlanta Falcons 34-17 in Madrid on Sunday, winning their fourth straight game and improving to 6-2. Their offense has been unstoppable, ranking first in both EPA per play and success rate over their last four games.
They've been the best offense in the NFL over the last month, mainly because of Joe Burrow's brilliance. Over Cincinnati's last four games, Burrow ranks first in EPA per pass, passing success rate, completion percentage, and passing touchdowns.
Data courtesy of SumerSports. Statistics reflect Cincinnati's last four games (Weeks 5 and 7–9).
And it's been a passing attack by committee, with Cincinnati boasting three receivers in the top 20 among qualified pass catchers in EPA per target according to NFL Next Gen Stats: Tee Higgins (4th), Mike Gesicki (7th), and Ja'Marr Chase (18th). It's been much debated, but now it's official: Mike Gesicki is better than Ja'Marr Chase. Tell your friends.
It's good to see Burrow and this offense back to their vintage ways. Burrow is playing with so much confidence right now, and it doesn't look like anything will slow this offense down.
3. Green Bay Packers
I don't know how they continue to do it with how abysmal their run game has been, but this Green Bay Packers offense continues to have success. And I want to make it clear: this isn't a mediocre rushing attack. This is quite possibly the worst rushing attack in the league, as Green Bay ranks 32nd in both EPA per rush and rushing success rate, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
There are 32 teams in the NFL, by the way, if anyone wasn't aware. But hilariously, it hasn't mattered because this Packers passing attack has been awesome recently. Since Week 5, Green Bay ranks third in EPA per pass and first in passing yards.
Data courtesy of SumerSports. Statistics reflect Green Bay's last five games (Weeks 5-9).
Sunday's game was the perfect representation of what this Packers offense has been and most likely will be for the rest of the season. Packers running backs combined for just 95 yards on 26 carries (3.65 yards per carry), while Green Bay's rushing offense as a whole posted a 28.1% success rate and -0.23 EPA per rush, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
But again, it didn't matter because Jordan Love and this passing attack were so good. Love threw for 372 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 12.8 yards per attempt and posting a 153.2 passer rating.
Love did his damage deep downfield. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Love averaged 12.8 air yards per attempt, had a deep-pass percentage of 27.6%, and averaged 12 completed air yards, all ranking first among quarterbacks in Week 9.
The Packers have now won five of six and feature one of the hottest offenses in the league. They do have a tough road ahead, however, facing the second-hardest remaining schedule according to ESPN. And I'm not sure if their extremely imbalanced offense will continue to have success, but Love is slinging it all over the yard right now, and the Packers are looking scary.
Add us as a preferred source on Google