Teams Trending Down
1. Atlanta Falcons
It cannot be fun losing an NFL international game. That flight home's gotta be rough. The Atlanta Falcons lost by three possessions to the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, dropping their second straight game and fourth in their last five.
During that five-game stretch, the offense has ranked 26th in EPA per play and 30th in success rate. The defense hasn't been much better, ranking 22nd in EPA per play allowed and 31st in defensive success rate.
This squad has simply been far too inconsistent since Michael Penix Jr. returned. In Weeks 3 and 4, the first two weeks of Penix's season, this team was playing fantastic football, ranking first in both EPA per play and success rate on offense and seventh in defensive success rate.
The running game was elite, Penix was playing great, and everything was working.
But over the last five weeks, they've completely deteriorated, ranking 25th in EPA per play and 30th in success rate. And what was considered one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL a few weeks ago now ranks 31st in rushing success rate since Week 5.
Data courtesy of SumerSports. Statistics reflect Atlanta's last five games (Weeks 5–9).
Penix has a legitimate weakness when pressured. He's a completely different quarterback when pressured compared to when he has a clean pocket. Now, almost every quarterback's play is going to drop when pressured but these numbers are pretty dramatic.
When kept clean: 74.1% completion, 8.0 yards per attempt, a 9–3 TD-INT ratio, and a 109.3 passer rating.
When pressured: 28.8% completion, 5.1 yards per attempt, a 1–3 TD-INT ratio, and a 30.5 passer rating.
Data courtesy of PFF.
Interestingly, Penix has been pressured on just 28.7% of his dropbacks, the second-lowest rate in the league among qualified passers, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
This offense either needs to figure out how to get Bijan Robinson and the running game going again (showed signs of that last week as Bijan averaging 5.3 yards per carry on 19 attempts) to avoid putting Penix in obvious passing situations where he's most susceptible to pressure, or Penix needs to figure out how to be effective under pressure.
Luckily for the Falcons, this division race is wide open. Unluckily (is that a word?) for the Falcons, their next three games are against the Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings, and Detroit Lions. All three are currently 6-2, making for a difficult stretch for a struggling Atlanta team.
2. New England Patriots
The New England Patriots welcomed back over 60 former players from their 2016 Super Bowl squad, celebrated Rob Gronkowski's induction into the Patriots Hall of Fame, and saw Tom Brady return to Foxborough to call his first Patriots game for Fox.
But the Packers didn't care about any of that, clobbering the Patriots by three possessions in a game that was never particularly close. Quarterback Drake Maye threw three interceptions, and the defense allowed 45 points and 7.5 yards per play. Let's hope that this isn't a sign of things to come.
I'm optimistic that the Patriots offense will recover because they were playing great leading up to this game, especially Maye. In Weeks 4–8, Maye ranked first in EPA per pass, second in passing success rate, third in yards per attempt, and tied for the most passing touchdowns with 14 during that stretch.
Maye has proven that he can recover from poor performances. Weeks 1–3 were very rough for Maye, but he followed that up with five straight weeks of excellent football. I'm not too worried about Maye and this offense bouncing back.
While I'm optimistic about the offense, I have much less hope for this defense. They've really struggled as of late, ranking 29th in EPA per play allowed the last 4 weeks, and haven't found any form of consistency this season.
New England has games against the Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills, Minnesota Vikings, and Kansas City Chiefs, all before Christmas. I'm excited to see how New England will recover from this bad loss at home. They'll have plenty of opportunities in the coming weeks to prove that they're legitimate Super Bowl contenders.
3. Minnesota Vikings
What a game we had on Monday night! Some are saying it's the game of the year. What an offensive explosion for the Minnesota Vikings!
Listen to these stats: 6 total points, 178 total yards, 3.9 yards per play, and -0.77 EPA per play. I mean, that's just good football. No, but seriously, I don't think I've ever seen an EPA per play that low,
and I've seen a lot of EPA per plays!
The passing game was abysmal, the running game was nonexistent. The Vikings have truly outdone themselves! Clap it up for 'em, round of applause!
This Minnesota defense has been elite this year, carrying them to every win they've had. Minnesota has lost two straight and faces the Packers and San Francisco 49ers coming up.
Now, the Vikings just traded for Kirk Cousins on Monday afternoon, a reunion for Cousins, the Vikings, and his former coach Kevin O'Connell. This will undoubtedly raise the floor of this offense and I'm looking forward to seeing a more competent Minnesota offense. So while Minnesota is technically trending down, losing two straight, and facing a tough schedule ahead, I'm optimistic there are better days ahead for the Vikings with Cousins back in Minnesota.
Add us as a preferred source on Google