Denver Broncos
Ceiling: 14-3
Floor: 10-7
The Denver Broncos went 14-3 in the regular season last year and came within one game of reaching the Super Bowl. It would have been rather easy to see Denver advancing to the big game had Bo Nix not broken his ankle, but the past is the past.
The Broncos added Jaylen Waddle in a trade this offseason and finally gave the offense a legitimate, No. 1 wide receiver that they've been missing for years now. Defensively, many of the key contributors are back into the mix, and we have seen this franchise get better each year of the Sean Payton era.
However, it's quite hard for a team to win any more than this in the regular season. We have yet to see a 16-1 regular season team in the 17-game era, and even 15-2 is rather uncommon. Given how talented many teams are across the league, the Broncos ceiling might again be that 14-3 record from 2025.
But a slight regression could be on the table, as Denver won a plethora of one-score games in 2025, and some have wondered if the team's late-game heroics would be able to sustain itself in 2026.
Houston Texans
Ceiling: 13-4
Floor: 9-8
The Houston Texans shored up the offensive line this offseason and added help at running back. This could very well be the best roster in the NFL, but the ceiling of CJ Stroud has come into question over the past two seasons. Stroud playing closer to his rookie season self would have the Texans near the top of the AFC, but if he's again average or even continues to regress, Houston could be fighting for a playoff spot.
The team also started 0-3 in 2025, so we can't pretend like they haven't played bad football before. Finishing around 11-13 wins does feel realistic.
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