New England Patriots
Ceiling: 12-5
Floor: 8-9
With a 14-win season in 2025, the New England Patriots shocked the NFL world. Sure, the team did have an insanely easy schedule, but 14 wins is 14 wins, no matter how you slice it. It was clear, though, that this team arrived onto the scene a year early, so talks of a regression are valid.
The schedule gets a lot tougher, too. Replicating that 14-win season in 2026 just does not feel likely unless everything on that roster takes a giant step forward, which is always possible.
However, our ceiling predictions for the Patriots is 12-5. Quarterback Drake Maye continues his high level of play, and the defense remains stout, but a tougher slate sees the Patriots dropping two more games from last year’s total.
The floor is 8-9, and this would be a serious indictment on the franchise. New England would struggle to hang with the juggernauts, and the true talent of this team would definitely get exposed. There is always a chance that 2025 was legitimately because of the easy schedule, and not because of this team actually being good.
New York Jets
Ceiling: 6-11
Floor: 3-14
The New York Jets trading for Geno Smith was a choice. It’s clear that the Jets are hoping that Smith returns to his Seattle Seahawks days, which is absolutely possible, but Smith was horrendous in 2025, and he’s not getting younger.
Head coach Aaron Glenn also seemed to be in way over his head, so the underwhelming head coach/quarterback duo is going to cap this team at six wins. The roster, while improving, isn’t quite there, and the Jets clearly aren’t trying to win a ton of games.
The floor is going to look a lot like 2025. Finishing 3-14 would be on the table if the Jets simply can’t get out of their own way and if Glenn can’t find any sort of improvement as a head coach in year two.
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