6. New England Patriots, .531 (14-3 in 2025)
The New England Patriots now have one of the toughest schedules in the NFL this year after having one of the easiest last year. It's a huge change and could absolutely yield fewer wins. With that said, there is also a chance the Patriots are for real and find a way to continue being an AFC juggernaut, so we can't write them off just yet.
5. Kansas City Chiefs, .536 (6-11 in 2025)
The Kansas City Chiefs were an average football team even with a healthy Patrick Mahomes last year, and there are still some notable roster questions with this team, specifically in the secondary and at wide receiver and tight end. With how much better the Chargers and Denver Broncos are right now as well, the Chiefs might be staring down another losing season.
4. Green Bay Packers, .538 (9-7-1 in 2025)
The Green Bay Packers are in the loaded NFC North, but this team is no slouch and did begin the year quite hot in 2025 before injuries caught up to them. The Packers should see guys like Micah Parsons and Tucker Kraft get themselves back into the lineup sooner rather than later, which is ideal.
With that said, the Packers do have one of the toughest schedules in the NFL and haven't been able to break through that 'good' tier, so having a tougher schedule might prevent them from reaching that tier in 2026.
3. Arizona Cardinals, .538 (3-14 in 2025)
Could the Arizona Cardinals go 0-17 this year? I ask this seriously. Not only is this the worst team in football at the moment, but the Cardinals also have the third-toughest schedule in the NFL and just don't have a path to more than a very small handful of wins this year, at best.
2. Miami Dolphins, .542 (7-10 in 2025)
The Miami Dolphins are in a similar boat but might be a hair better than the Cardinals. The Dolphins could struggle to win games but are clearly embracing a full-scale rebuild, so the potential for a 2-15 season, for example, really wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.
1. Chicago Bears, .550 (11-6 in 2025)
Chicago shockingly won the NFC North last year and are now rewarded with the toughest schedule in the league, as opponents won 55 percent of their games last year, which translates to playing a 9.35-win team each week.
The Bears have a huge test in front of them, but if the progression from 2024 into 2025 tells us anything about 2026, the Bears will be a juggernaut and could enjoy another double-digit win season.
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