Houston Texans
“Houston, we have a problem.”
The Houston Texans, after entering the year as Super Bowl contenders, are off to an 0-3 start. They return home to Houston to take on the Dallas Cowboys in a game that is looking about as “must-win” as it gets. Starting 0-4 would make it incredibly difficult to see Houston in the playoff picture in January.
So how did we get here for the Texans?
Well, in Week 1 against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills, they were on the wrong side of a shootout where the defense really struggled. Allen threw for 334 yards on 11.5 yards per attempt and +0.49 EPA per dropback, while the Houston pass rush managed to pressure Allen on only 28.1 percent of his dropbacks.
Houston’s offense was effective as well, totaling 381 yards and posting a +0.05 EPA per play. That production translated to 31 points, but it still wasn’t enough, as the Texans ultimately lost by five.
In Weeks 2 and 3 against Cincinnati and Indianapolis, we saw the defense return to its effective ways, holding both opponents to 4.5 yards per play or less and -0.13 EPA per play or worse. We saw the pass rush return in Weeks 2 and 3 as well, as Houston had a quarterback pressure rate of 38.9% in Week 2 and 46.3% in Week 3.
But quarterback CJ Stroud and this offense have struggled in recent weeks, scoring just six points and averaging 4.8 yards per play in Week 2 before averaging 4.4 yards per play and -0.14 EPA per play in Week 3.
This team hasn’t been consistent enough on either side of the ball, leading to three straight losses. But three weeks is too early to write an obituary on this Texans season, and they have an opportunity to get their first win as they return home to face a Cowboys team coming back from an international trip to Brazil where they lost on a last second field goal.
I bet that was a rough flight home to the States for Dak Prescott and company.
Back to Houston though. There is optimism for this Texans offense.
Nico Collins was a full participant in practice on Friday. Collins hasn’t played since the Week 1 shootout where he hauled in seven receptions on 10 targets for 75 yards and a touchdown. Stroud and this passing attack would benefit tremendously from the return of their No. 1 wideout.
They’re also facing a Dallas defense that ranks 30th in EPA per play and yards allowed. This could be a perfect opportunity for the Texans offense to get back on track.
The defense will have a tough matchup against an excellent Cowboys offense that ranks third in EPA per play and seventh in points, but this Texans defense has looked excellent in recent weeks.
It could also be a good matchup against Prescott if Houston can get pressure on him.
The Texans ranks 11th in pressure rate, and Dak has looked much different when pressured this season. According to PFF, when kept clean, Prescott has completed 81.1% of his passes, averaged 8.2 yards per attempt, thrown seven touchdowns and posted a 132.3 passer rating. When pressured, those numbers fall to a 41.9% completion rate, 4.0 yards per attempt, zero touchdowns and a 40.4 passer rating.
If Stroud and this offense can be effective at home and the Houston pass rush can get after Prescott, I think there’s a good chance the Texans add their first win to the tally.
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