Nothing renews optimism quite like the NFL offseason. Every team is undefeated, expectations are high, and (almost) every fan base is dreaming big for the upcoming season.
For some teams, the hype is too much.
There are a handful of teams entering the 2026 NFL season who have been significantly overrated by fans and media alike. Using each team's projected over/under win total for the upcoming season from the oddsmakers in Vegas, we're going to take a look at the top 4 AFC teams with win projections that are simply way too high right now.
4 AFC teams whose win projections are way too high in 2026
4. Kansas City Chiefs
Over/under projection: 10.5 wins
Not only are the Chiefs being projected at 10.5 wins (and many are thinking they'll be over that amount), but they have the 6th-highest odds to win the Super Bowl this season.
It's understandable why so many people in the NFL world are jumping right back on the Chiefs' hype train. This is a team that wasn't just penciled in for the AFC Championship Game for most of the last 8 years -- they've been a mainstay in the Super Bowl with five appearances and three wins.
We get it.
But this is not the same Chiefs team anymore. Although it's definitely fair to think this Chiefs team could bounce back after a down year, they only won 6 games last season, and it wasn't like they were on a Super Bowl pace before Patrick Mahomes's injury.
It feels like the NFL world is smashing the over on the Chiefs' win total this year, but with offensive line issues and a young defense, can this team really add another 5 wins compared to last season?
3. Baltimore Ravens
Over/under projection: 11.5 wins
The Ravens are tied with the Los Angeles Rams for the highest over/under win projection for the 2026 season, and have the 4th-highest Super Bowl odds of any team in the NFL.
Even if we're expecting the Rams to bounce back, we're really going to sit here and say that this is a 12-win team off the rip?
The Ravens have proven they have a great team when everyone is healthy, but there are more variables this year than simply staying healthy. The Ravens have a rookie head coach and a 1st-year offensive play-caller (Jesse Minter and Declan Doyle). They have a raw interior offensive line, and it's not difficult to envision this team still having some struggles in the secondary.
They ranked 30th against the pass last season.
Even though they are absolutely a bounce-back candidate after winning just 8 games in 2025, projecting 12 wins feels like a bit much.
2. Cincinnati Bengals
Over/under projection: 10.5 wins
The last time the Cincinnati Bengals won more than 10 games was back in the 2022 season.
No matter how many times Joe Burrow says this could be the best team he's been on since he got to the Bengals, it feels like projecting 11 wins for this Cincinnati team in 2026 is over the top.
Not to say they can't do that, but settling on that as the landing spot for a team that has struggled to even get to 9 wins over the last three seasons?
It's going to require a lot of things going right for the Bengals to hit the over and get to 11 wins. They play in a relatively tough division with the Ravens expected to bounce back and the Steelers coming off of a division title. The AFC itself is a gauntlet. Joe Burrow hasn't been able to stay healthy. The offensive line has had problems.
Maybe most importantly, we need to see proof that the Bengals' defense is going to actually be competent.
1. Tennessee Titans
Over/under win projection: 6.5 wins
The Tennessee Titans are an interesting team in this particular type of category.
Some have them set at an over/under of 4.5 wins, and some have them set at 6.5 wins. I've been singing the Titans' praises most of the offseason, and part of me wants to stick with my gut, but another part of me can't ignore what we saw from Cam Ward in the preseason.
It's just preseason. It's just preseason. It's just preseason.
We'll see what Ward and Brian Daboll have cooking for the regular season, but for right now, I'm confident in saying that predicting the Titans to win 7 games this season (taking the over) is a bit much right now. That would mean more than doubling last season's win total, and that's going to be tough if Ward is any version of erratic this season.
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