So you've made it to Week 18 of the NFL season and your team still has a mathematical chance to make the NFL playoffs. Even with the stakes as high as they can possibly be, there are still plenty of obstacles facing each individual team as we enter the final week of the regular season.
There is one playoff spot available in each conference as we head into Week 18, and two teams (Broncos, Bucs) have particularly strong holds on those spots if we're shooting straight. But this is the NFL where anything can happen on a given week and you've got to expect the unexpected.
There are obviously plenty of teams jockeying for playoff positioning still, but there are five teams fighting for two playoff spots. What are the biggest obstacles facing each of them?
Bengals facing toughest odds to crack the NFL playoffs in 2024-25 season
1. Cincinnati Bengals
Biggest Obstacle: Chiefs not playing starters
The biggest obstacle for the Cincinnati Bengals might not even have anything to do with their own game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. That is going to be tough enough on its own because the Steelers are playing for both the NFC North and/or the 5th seed in the postseason. They've lost three straight games and might be "due" entering Week 18.
But the Steelers aren't just going to roll over for the Bengals. They have a lot more to play for than just pride. Winning in Week 18 could be the difference between a road trip to Baltimore or a road trip to Houston for Pittsburgh, potentially even hosting a playoff game.
But the biggest obstacle for the Bengals is likely the Denver Broncos being gifted a home game against the Kansas City Chiefs' backups in Week 18. The Bengals found a way to beat Denver, keeping their hopes alive in Week 17. But the Broncos might get themselves a gift if the Chiefs decide not to play any key starters in Week 18. And a Broncos win sinks the Bengals, no matter what happens for them on Saturday night.
2. Miami Dolphins
Biggest obstacle: Not having Tua Tagovailoa (potentially)
The Miami Dolphins' season is on the line in Week 18 and they have to go win on the road against the New York Jets to keep their playoff hopes alive. The biggest obstacle they are facing right now could be the status of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
With Tagovailoa in the lineup, the Dolphins are probably easily favored in this game. The Jets have been sadsacks all year long, but it's not like they are missing their star players out there. They are good enough to beat Tyler Huntley and the Dolphins in a head-to-head matchup, especially playing at home and wanting to finish the year on a high note (as well as achieve incentive bonuses).
Not having Tua due to a hip injury could sink the Dolphins in Week 18.
3. Atlanta Falcons
Biggest obstacle: Buccaneers have an absolute gimme in Week 18
The Atlanta Falcons' path to the playoffs is easier said than done. They need to win in Week 18 and they need the Bucs to lose. Simple enough until you realize that the Bucs have a home game against Spencer Rattler and the hapless New Orleans Saints.
Yes, the Saints get paid to play, but with a backup QB and interim head coach, they're going to face off against a Bucs team that is coming off of a game in which Baker Mayfield had as many touchdowns (5) as he did incomplete passes. The Falcons not only have to beat the Panthers (who have played decent over the last couple of months) but they also have to hope the Saints can pull off a ridiculous upset.
4. Denver Broncos
Biggest obstacle: The team's shaky play as of late
The Denver Broncos had a 91 percent chance of making the playoffs with three games left to play. They have been in a "win and in" situation since Week 16. That hasn't changed for them in Week 18 but the biggest issue facing the Broncos right now is themselves.
Can the Broncos limit mistakes at home against the Chiefs, even if it's against Chiefs backups? Can their defense regroup after four consecutive pretty bad outings? We've seen the Broncos play stretches of really good football this season but lately, they've been on shaky ground. They had some close calls against the Browns and Colts before ultimately dropping games against the Chargers and Bengals.
This team feels like it's skating on thin ice by its own volition.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Biggest Obstacle: Not looking past the Saints
I'm going to keep it real here: The Buccaneers don't really have that many huge obstacles in Week 18. The job is nearly complete. They need to take care of business against the Saints, obviously, but that has to be the focus this week.
Tampa Bay would be the 3rd or 4th seed in the NFC if they win this game against the Saints so they just can't get caught up in advance scouting or keeping their focus on anyone but New Orleans right now. They have to keep their focus.
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As long as they do that, they'll be NFC South champs yet again.