AFC East
New England Patriots - Regression is much more than expected as the team slips out of the playoffs and Drake Maye isn't the same
Much of what we have talked about with the New England Patriots this offseason has been centered around how easy the team's schedule was in 2025 and how likely it may be that the team regresses in the 2026 NFL Season. With New England now sporting one of the toughest schedules in the NFL, it's worth wondering if a regression could be on the table.
And, at worst, the regression ends up being so significant that the team not only misses the playoffs, but quarterback Drake Maye sees a decline in play and looks nothing like his near-MVP self from the 2025 season.
Buffalo Bills - New head coach Joe Brady quickly proves to be in way over his head
This is honestly the nightmare scenario for any year one head coach. A first-year head coach looking to be in way over his head is a death sentence for any NFL team. With how solid the Buffalo Bills have been, one would think that it'd be nearly impossible for this team to struggle, but the head coach does have a huge role in it all.
Brady not being cut out to be a head coach in this league could end up leading the Bills out of the playoffs for what would be the first time since Josh Allen's rookie season way back in the 2019 season.
Miami Dolphins - Dolphins win too many games and lose out on a top pick in the 2027 NFL Draft
Similar to the Browns situation, what if the Miami Dolphins end up winning, let's say, six games? They'd surely miss out on the top few quarterback prospects in the 2027 NFL Draft, and it would create a situation where the team misses out on the one player that could potentially change this franchise for the better.
New York Jets - See above
The New York Jets actually have a good bit of talent across the roster, but they desperately need a franchise quarterback, so this would be yet another team falling into this 'they won too many games' tier. Simply put, the worst teams in the AFC need to silently hope they don't win many games to increase their chances at landing one of the best quarterbacks in next year's NFL Draft class.
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