As the 2025 NFL season moves closer to a close, many teams and their fans are already thinking about the 2026 off-season. Rosters have holes and pending free agents. Those holes need filling and free agency is one of three mechanisms teams can use to improve their roster.
Most fans flock to salary cap websites like Over The Cap to see how much salary cap their favorite team has available. Beyond current cap space teams have the option to restructure current contracts to free even more cap space. But that's not quite how teams work.
It's About Cash - Not Cap
Yes, teams will make certain moves to clear cap space. But the real governance over their talent additions and subtractions center around cash spending. The salary cap is merely an accounting measure. It's similar to how one would manage their credit card. Teams spend real cash on players but defer the accounting of those cash payments over multiple years.
When a team restructures a player's contract, they aren't actually paying him less in that year. They are actually guaranteeing the player's salary (when the payment isn't already guaranteed) and simply moving the accounting of that payment from that year to multiple years.
Not every team spends the same amount of money each year. Some teams are big spenders, while other teams act as if they are cash poor. The only real constraint the NFL puts on cash spending is that teams have to hit a certain spending floor over multi-year periods. The current spending period being measured is 2024-2026. There are two teams with current spending habits that will not have them reach that floor, so something has to change. Those teams are the Saints and the Rams.
What To Expect With Each Team's Cash Budget
Team budgets change from year to year based on a variety of reasons. Some teams oscillate their budget based on winning windows. As an example, the Bucs spent 16% over the salary cap trying to maximize the Tom Brady years. But in 2023, the year after Brady retired, they pulled cash spending back to 68% of the salary cap in that year.
Other teams keep a consistent budget year-over-year. But over long periods of time most teams show a pattern of spending that becomes rather predictable. With that we can create a rough expected budget for how much each team is expected to spend in free agency. Here is a chart I have compiled thanks to information gathered from Jack Duffin of The OBR, looking at the average cash spend each team has spent from 2021-2025, how much that would be for a projected $305 million salary cap in 2026, what their current 2026 cash commitments are, how much the draft should cost them in cash based on current projected draft picks via Over The Cap and how much they have left over for free agency and extensions.
Team | 2021-2025 Cash Spending as % of Salary Cap | Projected 2026 Cash Spending Budget | Current 2026 Cash Commitments | Projected Draft Cash Costs | FA/Extension Budget |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chargers | 97% | $295.7M | $133.9M | $21.6M | $140.2M |
Texans | 107% | $327M | $191.0M | $30.6M | $105.3M |
Falcons | 99% | $302.4M | $186.1M | $11.7M | $104.6M |
Browns | 122% | $370.8M | $211.9M | $56.6M | $102.3M |
Jets | 104% | $318.0M | $147.0M | $72.4M | $98.6M |
Seahawks | 96% | $291.4M | $177.1M | $16.3M | $98.0M |
Titans | 100% | $304.9M | $162.3M | $54.6M | $88.0M |
Commanders | 102% | $310.5M | $193.0M | $32.3M | $85.2M |
Colts | 106% | $322.0M | $227.5M | $14.2M | $80.2M |
Jaguars | 109% | $333.8M | $236.9M | $19.2M | $77.7M |
Raiders | 96% | $291.6M | $154.5M | $59.8M | $77.2M |
Bengals | 103% | $312.9M | $202.4M | $35.6M | $75.0M |
Panthers | 98% | $300.0M | $201.1M | $26.6M | $72.3M |
Patriots | 101% | $308.0 | $213.7M | $24.3M | $70.0M |
Steelers | 96% | $293.7M | $193.2M | $33.2M | $67.3M |
Giants | 103% | $313.6M | $219.7M | $46.6M | $47.3M |
49ers | 113% | $343.2M | $272.5M | $25.1M | $45.6M |
Ravens | 104% | $317.3M | $239.0M | $33.8M | $44.5M |
Saints | 80% | $244.7M | $162.9M | $37.5M | $44.3M |
Broncos | 106% | $323.4M | $255.7M | $23.8M | $44.0M |
Buccaneers | 98% | $297.5M | $226.4M | $28.4M | $42.6M |
Rams | 90% | $274.3M | $194.5M | $38.6M | $41.2M |
Bears | 97% | $295.1M | $231.1M | $23.8M | $40.2M |
Dolphins | 105% | $320.5M | $245.6M | $36.4M | $38.5M |
Eagles | 107% | $326.5M | $263.5M | $26.9M | $36.1M |
Cardinals | 99% | $303.3M | $217.3M | $52.3M | $33.7M |
Bills | 101% | $307.1M | $254.5M | $22.8M | $29.8M |
Vikings | 103% | $315.5M | $262.3M | $28.1M | $25.1M |
Cowboys | 103% | $313.4M | $256.1M | $36.2M | $21.1M |
Lions | 103% | $313.9M | $283.9M | $23.8M | $6.3M |
Chiefs | 102% | $311.2M | $278.8M | $34.9M | (-$2.5M) |
Packers | 94% | $288.2M | $277.9M | $14.2M | (-$4.0M) |
Five Teams To Monitor
As stated above, if the Saints and Rams follow this spending pattern, they would not reach the spending floor for the 2024-2026 time period. Both teams will need to increase spending to reach that threshold. For the Saints it's as much as an $86 million increase. The Rams need to increase by just $12 million. They have several young defensive players that are extension-eligible, and they have already started to reward them with extensions for linebacker Nate Landman and safety Quentin Bell.
The Lions, Chiefs and Packers are all at the extreme low end of the spending room table, with Kansas City and Green Bay currently in the negative. Those teams have two levers they can pull to address those issues. The first is an increase in spending. Again, there is no cash spending limit placed on teams and the ownership or operations group (for Green Bay) could just authorize an increase in their cash spending for the year.
The second lever is cutting players who don't have guaranteed salaries to make room for other players deemed more integral to future success. I wrote recently how Taylor Decker could be a cut candidate for the Lions. The Packers could similarly part ways with Aaron Banks, Rashan Gary and/or Elgton Jenkins. Jawaan Taylor and Mike Danna head the list for Kansas City.