Quarterbacks: the dark side of change
Only three spots changed at a 50% rate or higher over the last decade at the quarterback position. Those were the 5, 10 and 12 slots.
The best outlook is the 10th spot, which homed Justin Herbert last season. Whether it is the fluke injuries to him or the offensive line, the loss of Keenan Allen or the lack of a strong running game in Los Angeles, there is a real case to be made for the Chargers’ signal caller falling out of the top rankings next season.
The next best outlook is the 12-hole, held by Baker Mayfield in 2025. Similar to Herbert, there was a loss of a top weapon this offseason in the form of Mike Evans.
Mayfield also dealt with injury in the back half of last season, and visibly never looked right afterward. Is he better now after healing and resting, or is the shoulder injury still something for fantasy players to be on alert for?
By far the worst odds to return as a top-12 quarterback next season, a distinction held by the 5th spot. Over the last decade, the player at that position fell out of the top rankings 90% of the time. Only Kirk Cousins in 2016 survived it.
In 2025, the quarterback who finished at 5 is a top-of-the-line darkhorse MVP candidate heading into this season: Caleb Williams.
It isn’t that there isn’t a fair case to be made. Williams lost his top wide receiver, D.J. Moore, in an offseason trade. His center retired out of nowhere.
There is every case to make that the Bears’ signal caller will fall out of the top rankings in fantasy this year. However, he is such a good and flashy playmaker, which makes it hard to stay away from him in fantasy football.
The new quarterback trend
Over the last five years, a trend has emerged for fantasy football quarterbacks who finished in the 6th spot. Before the turn of the decade, the 6 spot hadn’t had anyone fall off the top of the quarterback mountain.
Since the 2020s arrived, it is a much different picture, with four out of five, or 80%, not coming back to finish as a top-12 quarterback. In 2025, that spot belonged to Dak Prescott.
Prescott has a lot of cases for him to fall out of the top. However, the one that stings the most is his trend over even-numbered years since 2020.
Since he destroyed his ankle in 2020, the Cowboys’ quarterback has missed at least five starts in every even year since. We will see if Prescott can buck that trend in 2026. If not, the sixth spot could see another victim since the turn of the decade.
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