There is a lot of downward movement in the top running back ranks
Slots 3, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11 and 12 all have at least a 60% chance of moving down in the fantasy running back rankings next season. That is a total of seven spots.
The best odds belong to the 3, 10 and 12 positions, with a 60% rate of change over the last decade. The first player this correlates to is Jahmyr Gibbs.
The good news is that Gibbs is heavily involved in both the running and passing attack in Detroit. The only case against him is how sustainable is his usage? After a while, a running back breaks down.
While the Lions' star runner is still on his rookie contract, his total touches have increased each year since coming into the NFL.
Considering Gibbs is the only player with a trend attached to his 2025 ending result, it feels fair to bring it up here. Since 2020, four of the six times a player from the 3 position has fallen out of the RB1 rankings have taken place, giving the Detroit running back a red flag for fantasy football.
The second player in the 60% club is Travis Etienne. His case feels really simple. How will the first-year Saint mesh with the offense?
The offensive line feels comparable to the one he had in Jacksonville. The workload, however, could be different from what Etienne had. There is no telling what New Orleans may do with Alvin Kamara, with all of the rumors about his future circulating.
As such, there is no way of telling what Etienne’s workload might look like for the upcoming season, making him a bit of a risk.
The final member of the 60% rate of change club is Javonte Williams. There is only one case that can be made against him other than health.
Dak Prescott misses big chunks of time in even-numbered years. If that phrase sounds familiar, it is because it has been brought up in each positional breakdown so far. However, it is a wildly important tidbit for every player.
As discussed with Taylor earlier, the quarterback and any potential threat he poses as a runner can make all the difference for the fantasy success of a running back. If Prescott goes down for another prolonged period of time in 2026, Williams likely will not be as effective as he was last season.
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