The worst of the running back downward spiral
Spots 6, 7, 9 and 11 each sit at the worst rates of change over the last decade of fantasy football, with 70%. The first player is James Cook, who has been an RB1 in each of the last three seasons, which gives a good outlook for him.
Just about the only case against Cook is any possible injury he may incur. However, given he is in the 70% fall off club, if a reader is unsettled by the odds, it might be a decent idea to fade Cook in fantasy this year.
Up next is Chase Brown. There is a case for Brown falling out of the RB1 ranks in 2026. Which version of the running back will drafters get out of him?
Brown started horrendously slow last season before picking it up about halfway through. If the Bengals running back did not have the back half of the season he had, he would not have so much as sniffed the top-12 last year. Inconsistency could cost Brown his RB1 status if it continues into 2026.
The penultimate member of the 70% droppers club is Kyren Williams. The case for him is super simple. Does Blake Corum continue to ascend?
By the end of the season, it felt like Corum and Williams were trading drives. If that continues, it is easy to imagine Williams not seeing enough touches to repeat as an upper-echelon running back in 2026.
Finally, there is Ashton Jeanty. The sophomore running back dealt with one of the worst offensive lines last season. That unit was addressed and improved upon over the course of the offseason.
There is realistically one case against the Raiders running back that does not include the mention of injury. That comes down to how many targets will he get this season? With a new offensive-minded head coach, a pair of new quarterbacks, including one of them being a rookie, and a healthy Brock Bowers, it feels like Jeanty could see less than the 73 targets he had as a rookie.
The question then becomes whether or not the revamped offensive scheme and line will allow him to reach a higher rushing threshold. Everything feels like a wait-and-see for the Las Vegas running back.
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