Tight end: the bad side of change
Five spots over the previous 10 years have a 70% or higher rate of change. That is not a great outlook, but that is why an article like this is essential to warn about potential red-flag players in fantasy football.
The better side belongs to spots 7, 9 and 11. The players who held those finishing numbers last year were Dallas Goedert, Hunter Henry and Brock Bowers.
The case for Goedert is rather simple: Will Eli Stowers eat into his workload? There could be mention of A.J. Brown and any looming trade, but what else would there be to discuss about the Patriots' side of things?
Speaking of New England and Brown, the case for Henry feels rather cut and dry, too. How much are the new pass catchers going to eat into his workload from 2025? There are looming trade rumors for a certain wide receiver from Philadelphia, but do not discount Romeo Doubs; he is hungry and has shown flashes of brilliance in a crowded Green Bay receiving room.
The case for Brock Bowers is simple as well. Can he stay healthy? No one in the Las Vegas Raiders’ pass-catching room should be a threat to his status as the top option; it is all about health.
Then there were slots 4 and 10, which each hold an 80% change rate over the last decade of fantasy football.
Last season felt like a perfect storm for Dalton Schultz. Nico Collins missed a few games, and Tank Dell was gone for the entire year. Not to mention the offensive line was not great, most of the other pass-catching threats were rookies, and the running game was lackluster.
With all of those areas improving this offseason, maybe Schultz isn’t long for the top of the tight end mountain. After all, he missed the mark in 2024 in similar circumstances out in Houston.
Meanwhile, there is one case to make for Tyler Warren, and it is not even remotely related to him as a player. It boils down to the health of his quarterback, Daniel Jones, and if he can come back strong after his torn Achilles tendon last season. If Jones looks bad, odds are Warren could have a down year; if he is good, Warren is likely great again.
Tight end trends
As mentioned earlier, there are two trends to discuss. The spots in question are 3 (Kelce) and 5 (Ferguson).
For Kelce, there have only been three instances of the third spot falling out of the top-12 over the last decade. However, since 2020, a whopping 66% of them have occurred. While that is only two instances, it is a small trend to keep tabs on for the sample size of five years.
Meanwhile, there is much more substance for the fifth position. Ferguson is in real danger of falling out of the top-tier tight end conversation, according to the statistics since the turn of the decade.
While only four fifth-place finishers have fallen out of the top-12 over the last decade, 75% of them have taken place in the 2020s. While there is no correlation between tight end and quarterback in this time frame, it is worth repeating that Dak Prescott has a negative trend against him from the quarterback episode.
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