Wide receivers: the mid side of change
Segues are so fun sometimes. This level of change is reserved for players at spots where there is a 50%-60% chance that they fall out of the top receiver rankings in the following season.
The better end of that is the coin flip odds. Those spots are 2, 3, 7, and 11. The players in question are: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Zay Flowers, and a certain former Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver.
There is not much of a case to make regarding Smith-Njigba and St. Brown beyond, can they stay healthy? So, that is a great thing to have in the pocket. However, St. Brown has a recent trend (it is a fun one instead of the typical bad one, as alluded to earlier).
That said, Flowers will face more competition in his own wide receiver room in 2026, making his coin flip a lot more interesting. The Ravens drafted a pair of pass catchers, who are looking to contribute. Not only that, but Rashod Bateman is coming into the season healthy.
The question is how much of Flowers’ target share will be taken from next season? The answer feels like the deciding factor of whether he will fall out of the WR1 ranks or remain.
Finally, we arrive at the A.J. Brown discussion. Whether he stays at the top level of fantasy wide receivers comes to, in part, a discussion that was had in the tight end episode. Where is Brown playing in 2026? We now know he will be playing in New England.
The Eagles added so much competition to the pass-catching room that it feels unlikely to predict everyone will have a similar target share as last season if he stays. Now that he's ended up on the New England Patriots, how much of a connection can he build with a new quarterback in a shortened offseason program?Â
Regardless, there are questions about his ability to return to the top ranks of wide receiver in fantasy football. Remarkably, there is an emerging trend around Brown and the 11 spot in recent years, so more on him in a little bit.
Spot 5 has the distinct honor of having 60% odds of leaving the WR1 ranks next season. The player in that slot is George Pickens.
Pickens is not much of a debate. How much time will CeeDee Lamb miss? You never want to wish injury upon anyone, but Lamb’s missed time in 2025 is a big part of why Pickens finished so high.
Finally, as it has become customary these days, Pickens is another Dallas Cowboys player relying on the Dak Prescott even-year injury trend not continuing. If it does, odds are Pickens falls out of the WR1 ranks.
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