Wide receivers: the dark side of change
This is where the wide receiver changes get really bad. There are five spots with higher than 70% odds of not being mentioned in the top receiver rankings next year. Those are slots 4, 8, 9, 10, and 12 (the latter of which had a tie in 2020, making there 11 players of the last decade).
Coming in at a 70% rate of change since 2015 is the fourth spot. With that said, Ja’Marr Chase finished there last season, making his case about injury to him or Joe Burrow being the only real thing preventing him from getting back here next year.
However, there are three players with an 80% chance of dropping out next year. The first of which is Michael Wilson.
Wilson’s breakout came out of nowhere, especially considering he had to take on the top receiver duties for most of the year with Jacoby Brissett, who was supposed to be his backup quarterback. It was a great story, but what happens when there is a healthy Marvin Harrison Jr., a renewed focus on the running game, and essentially becoming the fourth option on offense? All signs are pointing toward Wilson dropping, but no one could have predicted what he did in 2025; so anything could happen.
Secondly, there is Nico Collins. There is no questioning his top option status in the Houston passing game. However, there is a question surrounding the quarterback play and whether C.J. Stroud can return to his rookie form.
If Stroud can bounce back after a pair of down years, even a returning Tank Dell should not bring down Collins by much. If Stroud stays on the same trajectory he has been on, it could be a down year for Collins with Dell returning and players like Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel having a potential sophomore year uptick in workload.
The final 80% club member is Davante Adams. The Rams managed to get two players in the top-9 wide receivers last year. Similar to Nacua, it is pretty much the same setup as last year.
The catch with Adams is that he is another year older. Is he able to stay healthy this year, or will he deal with injury like he did at the end of 2025? The answer likely dictates whether or not Adams is back here next season.
Coming in at 81% odds of dropping, according to the last decade of fantasy football statistics, is Jameson Williams. Williams goes a bit deeper than St. Brown’s argument from earlier. He is the clear second option in the Lions' passing game.
Additionally, it is worth mentioning that tight end Sam LaPorta missed a bulk of the 2025 campaign. It could be the case that his presence eats into the workload of Williams, and they compete for the second option in the passing attack on a game-to-game basis.
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