Wide receiver trends
First up comes from the top spot and pertains to Puka Nacua. Over the last six years of data (since 2019), each of the three occurrences of a player falling out of the WR1 rankings from that spot has happened.Â
This trend is not a case of every other year. Additionally, it has not happened since 2022, but it is a trend worth mentioning, especially with Nacua’s offseason going how it has up to this point.
The sixth spot, for a time, had just one player fall out of the top receiver ranks. That is, until the 2023 and 2024 data rolled in and the players holding that spot dropped. Chris Olave could put an end to this short trend, but all the weapons New Orleans added this offseason will make that a more difficult task for him.
As mentioned before, the third slot from the previous season has a 50% chance of falling from the graces of WR1. However, since the turn of the decade, it has only happened once.Â
Furthermore, Amon-Ra St. Brown seems to have ownership over the third spot as he has finished in there in each of the last three fantasy seasons. It is really amazing to think about his consistency over the years, considering how many elite wide receivers there are in the league these days.
The final trend is about A.J. Brown, and it is another good one. The 11 spot is another one with a 50% rate of change. However, since 2020, the spot has only had one player fall from the WR1 ranks.
That means, over the last five seasons of fantasy football data, Brown has only a 20% chance of dropping out of a top-12 fantasy wide receiver spot, which begs the question: Does it really matter where he plays next season if he can still produce at an elite level?
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