4. Atlanta Falcons - Kevin Stefanski
The Atlanta Falcons could end up being one of the more fun teams on this list. New head coach Kevin Stefanski is a two-time Coach of the Year, and outside of the Watson trade failure, which not many saw coming, Stefanski's tenure with the Browns was pretty successful.
He now heads to Atlanta with a team that sports a ton of top-end talent on offense, a strong offensive line, and a defense that was among the best at getting to the quarterback last year. Furthermore, if Tua Tagovailoa wins the starting job and can play as he did during the 2022-2024 seasons with the Dolphins, this team is going to be a problem.
But given the overall uncertainty of the quarterback situation, the Falcons come in at No. 4 for now.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers - Mike McCarthy
Mike McCarthy and the Pittsburgh Steelers do feel like a 9-8 or 10-7 team this year, as I am not sure a shocking change in head coach is going to change that. What this franchise really needs is a losing season to force a much-needed rebuild. Pittsburgh might be the most 'high floor, low ceiling' team in the NFL.
Winning more than 10 games would be a massive shock, and making any sort of progress in the playoffs would be even more shocking. The Steelers are fine.
2. Baltimore Ravens - Jesse Minter
Jesse Minter was with the Baltimore Ravens from 2017-2020 and obviously has connections to the Harbaugh family, so this head coaching change isn't some sort of ground-breaking move, but Minter's sharp defensive mind is really what needs to shine through here, as the Ravens will continue to field an elite offense if Lamar Jackson can stay healthy and remain on the field.
Getting that defense sorted out and avoiding a disastrous start are the two major keys here, and let's also not pretend like the Ravens don't know hwo to win games. The team nearly won the AFC North in 2025 after starting 1-5.
1. Buffalo Bills - Joe Brady
The Buffalo Bills have won double-digit games each year since 2019 and won the AFC East from 2020-2024, a five-year run. It's been the insane playoff heartbreaks that was likely the main reason for parting ways with Sean McDermott. It's not a guarantee that Joe Brady can help the Bills get over the hump, as he was already with the franchise before being promoted, but this was a necessary change.
The Bills will likely win a ton of games this year, as they always do and are currently not only the best team with a new head coach, but a top-5 team in the sport.
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