4. Jacksonville Jaguars
If the Jacksonville Jaguars can get the late-2022 or early-2023 version of Trevor Lawrence, they will be in the mix in the AFC South all year long. This is a team that looked like one of the best young teams in the NFL just a couple of years ago, but injuries to Lawrence have derailed progress significantly.
But the Jags obviously aren't that worried about it because they gave Lawrence one of the biggest contracts in NFL history.
The Jags have interesting foundational players on both sides of the ball. Travon Walker took a step forward last year. Josh Hines-Allen is solid. Travis Hunter could be the most interesting player in the entire league. Brian Thomas Jr. was among the league leaders in receiving yards as a rookie.
There's a lot to like, but the Jaguars will have to prove they can stay healthy and that Lawrence hasn't simply fallen off as a player.
3. Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders should be significantly improved this coming season after winning just four games last year. The hiring of Pete Carroll as the team's head coach is one of the best coaching moves of the 2025 offseason, and they followed that up by upgrading the QB position with the Geno Smith trade.
After the rookie year we just saw from Brock Bowers, it's hard not to be excited about a core for the Raiders offensively that also now includes Boise State superstar Ashton Jeanty.
The Raiders' offense should be significantly improved, but their defense might be the worst on paper out of any team in the NFL. They lost some of the better players they had last year with safety Trevon Moehrig, cornerback Nate Hobbs, and linebacker Robert Spillane moving on in free agency. The Raiders also don't know if they're going to have defensive lineman Christian Wilkins, who is dealing with an injury.
I think the offense has 10-win potential but the defense has #1 pick potential. They might be capped at about 7 or 8 wins.