12. Carolina Panthers: 8 wins
The Carolina Panthers made some major improvements last season on the defensive side of the ball, and although it wasn't a season that's going to earn any banners in the rafters, the Panthers won the NFC South and have something to build on this coming season.
The one thing that's really holding this team's projection back is the offensive side of the ball, and maybe more specifically, quarterback Bryce Young. Just like the Saints, the Panthers' over/under is set at 7.5 wins for this coming season, and I'm taking a conservative "over".
I really liked the additions of Jaelan Phillips to one of the worst pass rush groups in the NFL, and the addition of Devin Lloyd to the middle linebacker posiiton really gives the Panthers another playmaker at the second level to keep that trajectory moving upward in 2026.
11. Washington Commanders: 8 wins
It doesn't feel like there's a general consensus with the Washington Commanders as we get into the meat of the 2026 offseason. The Commanders made it all the way to the NFC Championship Game just two seasons ago, but they were obviously one of the worst teams in the NFL in 2025.
What does that mean for 2026? Ultimately, it feels like nothing.
You can't base the 2026 projection of the Commanders on how good they were in 2024, because the roster is unrecognizable in a lot of ways compared to that team. You can't base the 2026 projection on last season, either, because the Commanders dealt with so many injuries on both sides of the ball.
The over/under is set at a low 7.5 wins, which should be an easy bar for the Commanders to clear as long as Jayden Daniels stays healthy.
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