10. Minnesota Vikings: 9 wins
The Minnesota Vikings have unofficially moved on from JJ McCarthy with the addition of Kyler Murray in NFL Free Agency, but time will tell if that move will lead to McCarthy's eventual departure from Minneapolis.
For the time being, it feels like the entire NFL world is operating under the assumption that Murray is going to be the starting quarterback for the Vikings, who still managed to win 9 games last season despite the fact that they had major quarterback issues all year.
The problem this season is that the Vikings overhauled their defensive front, they lost a key leader defensively in Harrison Smith, and their entire division is brutal. The over/under is set at 8.5 wins for the Vikings early on, and I like that number to start. Kevin O'Connell has earned the benefit of the doubt as his teams have played well above expectations almost every year that he's been with the Vikings.
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9 wins
The Buccaneers are a team skating by on the reputation they've built over the past few seasons. And that reputation is on thin ice after the way they finished the 2025 season.
Early on last year, it looked like the Bucs were destined for the NFC Championship Game at worst, and that Baker Mayfield was on his way to MVP considerations. The second half of the season ended up being a brutal disappointment for the team, and many are wondering if this could be the last year in Tampa Bay for both Mayfield and head coach Todd Bowles.
Losing Mike Evans and Lavonte David hurts in terms of the veteran leadership, but the Bucs did get better in other ways this offseason. Most notably, I'm still in a state of shock over the fact that Rueben Bain lasted to the Bucs' pick in the middle of the 1st round of the 2026 NFL Draft. Getting Bain upgrades one of the weakest pass rushes in the league.
The over/under is set at just 8.5 wins for the Bucs this season, so the oddsmakers in Vegas are also operating with caution.
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