4. AFC East: New York Jets
The more I look at the New York Jets' 2026 offseason, the more I really love it.
I'm as skeptical as anyone of the idea that Geno Smith is just going to magically be able to turn it back on after throwing 32 interceptions over his last 32 games, but there is also no question that he's a substantial upgrade over what the Jets previously had with Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor, and Brady Cook under center.
The 2026 NFL Draft was so good for the Jets, and possibly an immediately franchise-altering class. David Bailey upgrades one of the worst pass rush units in the league immediately. The idea of Kenyon Sadiq joining Mason Taylor at the tight end position in 12 personnel gives the Jets so many options.
Omar Cooper Jr. joining Garrett Wilson and Adonai Mitchell at receiver gives the Jets an enviable group of young receivers with different skill sets.
There is just a lot to like about this Jets team's projection in 2026 and I wouldn't be shocked if they win 7-9 games.
3. NFC North: Minnesota Vikings
We might have to put a bit of an asterisk next to the Vikings. This is a team that won 14 games just two seasons ago, and 9 games in 2025. The Vikings might not be so much of a "breakout" candidate this season as they are a candidate for "rebirth".
Whatever category you want to put them in, the Vikings have to be considered one of the likeliest worst-to-first teams in the league, but there are other teams that fit the criteria for being considered a "breakout" team, which is why they're a little lower on this list.
Still, the presence of Kyler Murray looms large for this Vikings team. Murray is now playing for another big-money contract, and his arrival has reignited a lot of optmism among the fan base. It doesn't bode well for former top pick JJ McCarthy, but Murray has a chance to entrench himself as this team's franchise QB and get the Vikings back into contention if he can bounce back. And it all really does hinge on him.
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