Tier 2: A sliver of hope if literally everything works in their favor
15. New York Jets
The New York Jets do have some nice talent on the roster, and while this team is still a year, at the earliest, away from the playoffs, not only is the offensive line young and solid, but the weaponry on offense is enticing. The Jets do have three first-round picks in the NFL Draft next year, and I have maintained that next year is really when this team could make some noise.
For 2026, however, things aren't looking up unless quarterback Geno Smith plays how he did during his 2022 breakout season with the Seattle Seahawks, the defense can at least be average, and head coach Aaron Glenn simply eases into his role in year two and makes those necessary strides, but that is asking a lot.
14. Las Vegas Raiders
The Las Vegas Raiders are trapped in one of the best divisions in football, but with the team having added a considerable amount of talent on defense this offseason, there is a non-zero chance that unit turns out to be quite solid.
That would then leave the offensive side of the ball, but outside of Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers, they don't have much else. An unlikely playoff season would require Kirk Cousins to play how he did when he first signed with the Atlanta Falcons and the defense to flirt with being a top-12 unit. That could get the Raiders to a 9 or 10-win season.
13. Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans, like the Raiders, are set to likely field an improved defense in 2026. The offense, though, is a big question mark. Cam Ward would need to make a significant year two leap in 2026, which isn't impossible, as Brian Daboll is his offensive coordinator, and he's worked well with young quarterbacks before.
I'm afraid that the Titans just might not have enough talent yet on offense to see that unit blossom, but there is a possibility if it all lines up.
12. Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts started 7-1 in the 2025 season, but that does feel like years ago at this point. With Daniel Jones coming off a torn Achilles, and the book potentially being out on Indy, a playoff berth could be tough.
Jones might only be the 10th or 11th-best quarterback in the NFL right now, as the AFC is rather loaded with quarterback talent, and the defense was just alright last year. All in all, Jones would have to return and play how he did to begin 2025, and the defense would simply need to be an all-around good unit.
11. New York Giants
Jaxson Dart had 24 total touchdowns in 14 games, and he could really make a year two leap in 2026. John Harbaugh was brought in as the head coach, but when you take a big picture look at this team, the Giants don't particularly scare you anywhere.
Not only would the defense have to figure out how to play well without Dexter Lawrence in the middle, but Dart would really have to clean up his style of play and turn into a dual-threat player in year two. That might be enough.
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