Tier 3: 40 percent chancers
10. New Orleans Saints
We're moving up into a tier where there is a distinct possiblity. With the New Orleans Saints winning four of their final five games to end the season, and the offense having seen significant talent enter the mix this offseason, there is a chance.
The Saints are also in the NFC South, a very winnable division, and Tyler Shough played quite well last year. All that might need to happen here is Shough takes a step forward, and the defense does the same. That could be enough for the Saints to win 9 or 10 games and take the division title.
9. Washington Commanders
The Washington Commanders have gone 17-17 over the past two seasons, but they were 12-5 in 2024. For the 2026 season, we'd need to see those notable free agency additions pay off, and for quarterback Jayden Daniels to simply stay on the field for, let's say, 14 games or more.
This team does know how to win and did it quite a bit in 2024, getting within game of the Super Bowl. Many of those same players are still present, but the NFC is quite good.
8. Atlanta Falcons
I might be in the minority here, but the Falcons could be a fun team in 2026. Tua Tagovailoa should be able to win the starting job, and if he does, this would be the most talented group of players on offense he's had. He also has a winning record as a starter and has been quite the efficient quarterback before.
There could still be some of that 2022-2024 spark left, but with his lengthy injury history, all of that does feel unlikely until he proves otherwise. I want to believe in Tagovailoa and the Falcons, but there is just so much uncertainty with the quarterback situation overall.
7. Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota quietly won 9 games in the 2025 season, and they did it with bottom-5 quarterback play. Simply put, if Kyler Murray wins this starting job and is a top-16 player at the position, the Vikings should be just fine. With that being said, the NFC North is loaded, so the Vikings just might not have enough in the tank to break through in that division.
Sure, a Wild Card spot could be likely, but there are a lot of other competent teams in this conference.
6. Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs not only traded cornerback Trent McDuffie this offseason, but they lost two other starters in free agency in Bryan Cook and Jaylen Watson. The team didn't do anything at wide receiver, have some slight offensive line questions, and also lost their most athletic linebacker in Leo Chenal.
Furthermore, the pass rush still feels rather uncertain outside of Chris Jones, and with the AFC West emerging as quite the deep division with the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers, I am not sure the Chiefs have a clear-cut path to the postseason.
But many are looking at the Kenneth Walker III addition as being enough for that offense to finally show some spark, and I guess you can never fully count out Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.
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