Tier 4: More likely than not
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had been able to win the NFC South with ease in recent years, and it you look at the recent history, the 2025 season was truly an outlier. While this team does not have a high ceiling in terms of being able to make a deep playoff run, the postseason has been easily attainable for this franchise.
If the Bucs can get better injury luck and simply not be as much of a disaster on offense as they were in 2025, a return to the playoffs is likely. Baker Mayfield is also the best quarterback in the division, and having the best quarterback does go a long way.
4. Dallas Cowboys
I am quite high on the Dallas Cowboys this year. They overhauled the defense, and with the team having the 7th-ranked scoring offense last year, all the defense needs to do is finish in the top-16. With the loaded, explosive offense led by Dak Prescott, the Cowboys already have half of the equation figured out.
The NFC East is also a rather uncertain division, as even the Philadelphia Eagles could have major offensive concerns with AJ Brown not being in the picture anymore.
3. Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals are similar to the Dallas Cowboys, but I would give the Bengals the nod on offense, and we have seen Joe Burrow go quite far in the postseason once he gets there. Cincy finally seemed to take the defensive side of the ball seriously this offseason, as this team has not been in the playoffs since 2022.
Like Dallas, what you need from Cincinnati this year is a defense that simply does not lose you games.
2. Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens began the year 1-5 thanks to a ton of injuries, and the Ravens did almost win the AFC North, but a missed field goal ended their season. Baltimore has been able to win a ton of games in the Lamar Jackson era, as the playoffs are more often than not. Last year definitely felt like an outlier season, so simply better health from the start would be plenty enough for the Ravens.
1. Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions have finished with a winning record four years in a row and won 27 regular season games between the 2023 and 2024 seasons. The Lions were also 7-4 at one point last year before a major collapse down the stretch. The Lions boast one of the more talented offenses in the league, and you figure that the defense can't stay bad forever, right?
And with how much this team has won in recent years, which has totaled 45 wins over the past four seasons, it's tough to see Campbell's team enduring the same fate in 2026 as they did in 2025.
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