4. New England Patriots
The New England Patriots got smoked in the Super Bowl last year, but this should be one of the league's best teams once again in 2026.
The Pats might not be quite as dominant as we saw at times in the 2025 regular season, but not because we're buying the version of the team we saw in the playoffs as their new norm. The Patriots have one of the best running games in the NFL. They have a top-tier young quarterback in Drake Maye. They have a head coach in Mike Vrabel who is one of the best game managers in the NFL.
The Patriots have plenty to overcome what I believe to be their weaknesses in the trenches on either side of the ball. I'm not sold on what New England did to upgrade the units that ranked dead last in sack differential (sacks allowed on offense vs. sacks defensively), even after spending their top two picks in this year's draft on both of those problem areas.
It can't be overstated that Drake Maye was sacked 21 times in four playoff games. He nearly doubled his season total of fumbles in the playoffs.
The arrival of AJ Brown gives this Patriots' offense yet another jolt, but Drake Maye is definitely in need of a bounce back with his playoff performance nearly washing away his MVP runner-up season completely.
3. Buffalo Bills
I'm not sure there is another team in the NFL taking a bigger risk than the Buffalo Bills in the 2026 season.
The Bills have Josh Allen in his prime window, and they made an extremely bold couple of moves on their coaching staff that could make them look like geniuses, or could end up sinking the ship completely.
Sean McDermott wasn't getting the job done, so the Bills sent him packing after the playoff failure against the Denver Broncos and hired Joe Brady in his place. Brady has been tremendous as a play-caller, but is now the CEO and the Bills have themselves a rookie head coach as well as a first-year defensive coordinator in Jim Leonhard.
Going with so much inexperience on the coaching staff is a bold move for the Bills, who are obviously in a contending window right now. These are the best years they're going to get out of Josh Allen. Every season is crucial, and the Bills are looking for a spark.
When it comes down to a big moment in January, how much will the inexperience on the coaching staff matter?
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