20. Pittsburgh Steelers
After an entire offseason of being extremely low on the Steelers, I've somewhat come around to them still being a contender in the AFC North this season.
It seemed like it would be poetic for the Steelers to have a losing record in the first year without Mike Tomlin, but this team has so many key veteran players on both sides of the ball, it's hard to see their floor being all that low.
Mike McCarthy is a good head coach. The oddsmakers currently have the Steelers with an over/under of 8.5 wins this season. With the level of talent they have in the trenches on both sides of the ball, 9 or 10 wins shouldn't be out of reach.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had a ridiculous collapse in the second half of the 2025 season. That collapse has firmly placed head coach Todd Bowles on the hot seat this season, and it led to some significant friction between Baker Mayfield and the organization in contract negotiations.
There are some dark clouds looming over this team right now, but it's impossible to deny that the Bucs have enough talent to be contenders in the NFC South. I don't know that this is a Super Bowl contending team, but they are certainly going to come into this season with a chip on their shoulders.
Maybe nobody more so than Mayfield. How far can he lead this team, and how much can his performance this season "tax" the organization on his next contract?
18. Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals are another team I've had to pump the brakes on a little bit this offseason.
Of course, I still believe that the core of players the Bengals have offensively can take them to a Super Bowl. We saw it early in Joe Burrow's career, and we have evidence to believe he can get through any gauntlet the AFC can put before him.
Unfortunately, we haven't seen it since the 2022 season. The Bengals haven't made the postseason since then, which seems inaccurate, but it's not. The upgrades they made on the defensive side of the ball this offseason need to come through, and Burrow needs a clean bill of health this season.
17. Kansas City Chiefs
There seem to be two extremes when it comes to projecting the Kansas City Chiefs for the 2026 season.
Some seem to think that their return to the elite class of teams in the AFC is inevitable. After losing so many one-score games last year, people expect the Chiefs to come back this season with a vengeance, and for Patrick Mahomes to return from his knee injury looking like prime Tom Brady.
Others seem to think that the Chiefs have been in a downward spiral for a couple of years roster-wise, and the dynasty is never going to be the same.
I tend to fall somewhere in the middle. I have a respect and reverence for the Chiefs that won't allow me to believe they are "dead". But the roster holes and issues are too significant to simply ignore and think they're going to be running the AFC again immediately.
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