4. New England Patriots
The Patriots are the reigning AFC Champs. Drake Maye was a legitimate MVP candidate in 2025. They added AJ Brown and Romeo Doubs to their receiver room this offseason.
So why does this team strike me as a regression candidate?
Maybe I'm overthinking the Patriots, and maybe I'm buying too much into "The Schedule" from last season. But I don't think so. This is a team that didn't pass the eye test in the playoffs last year at all despite making it all the way to the Super Bowl. It felt like what happened to the Patriots against Seattle is what should have happened in multiple games prior.
Still, this team can't be underestimated. They have elite balance offensively, and Mike Vrabel is one of the best situational head coaches in the game. It'll be interesting to see how this Patriots team does with a tougher slate of opponents, but this is still an 11-win team at a minimum.
3. Buffalo Bills
After making it as a Wild Card team last year, losing to the Broncos in the divisional round, the Buffalo Bills fired Sean McDermott and went with a youth movement on the coaching staff.
Joe Brady is taking over as a rookie head coach, and he's got a rookie defensive coordinator (at the NFL level) in Jim Leonhard, who is coming over from those Denver Broncos.
Buffalo's roster is championship-ready. They have the best quarterback in the league in Josh Allen. They have an elite run game. What does this Bills team lack that is needed to win it all on the biggest stage?
The jury is out on whether or not the young coaching staff is the right call for a team this good, but the quarterback and roster talent are certainly there for the Bills to be one of the last teams standing.
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