AFC 5th seed: New England Patriots
The New England Patriots are the reigning AFC Champions, and they have a chance to repeat in that category, but the road is going to be a lot tougher in 2026.
The Patriots' schedule did them a lot of favors last season, and that's not just an arbitrary way of trying to paint last year's success negatively. The Patriots' opponent win percentage in 2025 was 39.1 percent. They were the only team in the NFL to play a schedule in which their opponents had fewer than 100 wins on the season (91). Essentially, the Patriots played the equivalent of a 6-11 or 7-10 team on their schedule each week.
That lack of true testing came back to bite them badly in the playoffs, at least on the offensive side of the ball. They found ways to win in the first three games, but got smacked around by the Seahawks.
We'll see how the Patriots are able to use that disappointing drubbing in the Super Bowl as motivation going forward, and how much Mike Vrabel's job is impacted -- if at all -- by the off-field headlines in 2026.
Still, adding AJ Brown and Romeo Doubs at receiver gives this team a huge boost to an already dynamic passing game. The Patriots have one of the best secondaries in the league, and if they can clean up their league-worst sack differential (sacks allowed vs. sacks defensively), they'll be a factor deeper into January.
NFC 5th seed: San Francisco 49ers
Nobody can accuse the San Francisco 49ers have having too good of health luck the past couple of seasons. In fact, the 49ers have had some of the worst.
It's been so bad that people are blaming an electrical substation near the training facility for the team's inability to keep players on the field. That list has grown to abnormal lengths in recent years, and includes some of the 49ers' top star players (George Kittle, Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, etc.).
Even Brock Purdy missed a bunch of time last season.
Still, the 49ers found a way to endure. Christian McCaffrey remained a cheat code. Mac Jones filled in admirably and reminded people that he's a quality starter option in the league. The 49ers are now getting players back healthy for the 2026 season and appear reloaded for another playoff run.
The question will remain the health of the roster, but even with all of the upgrades the Rams made this offseason, I expect the 49ers to contend for a division title. I wouldn't be shocked if the top Wild Card spot in the NFC is their worst-case scenario.
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