AFC West
Las Vegas Raiders: 8-9
The Raiders made some upgrades this offseason that not even the biggest of haters could possibly ignore. Pete Carroll is a huge upgrade in the head coach department. Geno Smith over Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew? Come on. Going from Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah at running back to Ashton Jeanty? The Raiders should be vastly improved offensively, but their defense – on paper – is one of the worst I can recall seeing in my time covering the NFL. Pete Carroll is banking on a bunch of has-beens and reclamation projects, so we’ll see if it works out.
Los Angeles Chargers: 10-7
The Los Angeles Chargers don’t get enough credit for only beating bad teams last season. Well, they did sweep the Denver Broncos, who won 10 games, but everyone else was among the worst in the league last season. Go look at their schedule from last year. The Chargers have a ton of issues piling up already this year, including the loss of star left tackle Rashawn Slater to a knee injury. This team has enough talent to skate by but they aren’t real contenders in the AFC. The best they can hope for is to be a thorn in everyone else’s side.
Denver Broncos: 11-6
While the Chargers’ arrow is pointing down, the Broncos’ arrow seems to be pointing up. The Broncos already had the 3rd-best scoring defense in the NFL last year, and they added Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga, and Jahdae Barron. They had the 10th-ranked scoring offense, and they added Evan Engram, JK Dobbins, and have had a breakthrough offseason from wide receiver Troy Franklin. There is a lot to like about this Broncos team, and Sean Payton has them in position to be a sneaky contender in the AFC.
Kansas City Chiefs: 12-5
There’s no denying two things are true. First and foremost, the Kansas City Chiefs are one of the luckiest teams in the NFL. Second, the Chiefs are the league’s best team situationally. What does that mean? They create their own luck, essentially. The ball bounces their way a lot. And that’s because they are good, but also lucky. The Chiefs might take it personally this year that everyone seems to be diminishing their accomplishments over the past few years, so I think they’ll have a chip on their shoulder in a big way.