AFC South
Houston Texans
Ceiling: 14-3
Floor: 10-7
Houston's roster is excellent. Excellent. Sure, it's not perfect, but it's one of the very best in the NFL, and if fourth-year QB CJ Stroud can channel some of his 2023 magic, the Texans would emerge as the top team in the conference and win the AFC South with games to spare. General Manager Nick Caserio deserves a ton of credit for this group he's assmebled, but if Stroud is again hovering in that middle tier, as he has since the start of 2024, the Texans won't win more than 10 games and will again be a good-not-great football team,
Jacksonville Jaguars
Ceiling: 12-5
Floor: 9-8
Losing Travis Etienne and Devin Lloyd is going to hurt, and with the Jacksonville Jaguars also not necessarily having a top roster or a shored-up offensive line, the ceiling might be a bit lower than what we saw last year. With as many games as the team won, I do wonder about a regression given that the coaching was definitely doing most of the heavy lifting, and now that there is a year's worth of film out on this offense, there isn't a guarantee that the unit can take a step forward, which we did begin to see near the end of the 2025 season.
Indianapolis Colts
Ceiling: 10-7
Floor: 6-11
The Indianapolis Colts did begin the season 7-1 in 2025, and it felt like this team was truly a juggernaut, but winning just one more game the rest of the way has us wondering if this team can even come close to that first-half 2025 magic.
A more modest production might be realistic, as there are some offensive injuries, and QB Daniel Jones has still played more 'bad' football in his career than good. The Colts could also see a regression on offense from last year if teams figure out Jones and what Indy likes to do, so a six-win floor is also on the table.
Tennessee Titans
Ceiling: 7-10
Floor: 4-13
If Cam Ward is able to progress in 2026, the Tennessee Titans would be able to win seven-ish games. While the offensive line is far from a finished product, the Titans could absolutely show signs of optimism if Ward takes a step and if Robert Saleh's defense holds their own.
With that said, there isn't a ton of talent on offense for Ward, so some personnel deficiencies could see the Titans not making much progress from his rookie season in 2025, perhaps bringing into question if Ward is even the right QB to lead this franchise.
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