NFC South
Carolina Panthers
Ceiling: 10-7
Floor: 4-13
The Carolina Panthers won the division with an 8-9 record in 2025. That simply isn't going to happen in 2026. If quarterback Bryce Young is able to take another step forward, the Panthers could get to 10 wins, but this team doesn't really do anything particularly well, so the ceiling will largely be low.
If it all falls apart, Carolina would be one of the worst teams in the NFL. Young did play the best football of his career in 2026, but he was still largely mediocre, and a career year in 2025 doesn't guarantee anything in the 2026 season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ceiling: 10-7
Floor: 6-11
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have not won more than 10 games in a season since 2021, but they have also won no fewer than eight games during that time, so this is the definition of a low ceiling, high floor team. The ceiling in 2026 would likely look exactly the same - a good, 10-win team that takes advantage of a weaker division.
But the floor in 2026 could be a bit lower, as the coaching has come into question, and this team did battle injuries last year, so there isn't a guarantee that the injury concern goes away this year.
Atlanta Falcons
Ceiling: 9-8
Floor: 4-13
This ceiling might actually be too high a prediction for the Atlanta Falcons, as the QB room truly seems to be among the worst in the league. With that said, one of Tua Tagovailoa or Michael Penix Jr would have to at least be slightly above average for this team to get to a 9-8 record. Given how much talent is present on offense, that is possible.
But with neither likely to play that well, the Falcons could again struggle at the most important position in sports and again be faced with questions at this position. The defense is also going to be without Jalon Walker in 2026 and will be missing James Pearce for a good chunk of the season.
New Orleans Saints
Ceiling: 10-7
Floor: 6-11
Tyler Shough might just have the goods, folks. If he breaks out further in year two, the New Orleans Saints are going to become the shock of the league, as that offense is talented, and the defense was sneaky good last year. But if Shough, who is already almost 27 years old, doesn't have another gear, the 2026 season will look similar to 2025.
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