2023 NFL picks, score predictions for Week 5

New Orleans Saints (2-2) @ New England Patriots (1-3)

Sunday, October 8, 1:00 PM ET

This might be the NFL’s true clunker of the week on the Week 5 schedule. The New England Patriots are coming off of a very bad loss against the Dallas Cowboys in which quarterback Mac Jones was benched. Why was he benched? Well, he threw a pair of interceptions and barely completed 57 percent of his passes.

It was a horrendous showing against Dallas for the New England Patriots offense, which has been horrendous most of the year in general. They are averaging 13.8 points per game through the first four weeks of the season, and although the New Orleans Saints haven’t exactly been a juggernaut offensively (15.5 points per game), they have arguably been a lot more explosive than the Patriots.

The opening line on this game is a projected over/under of 39.5 points, which seems rather generous for the way these two offenses have played thus far in 2023. It’s certainly not a vintage Drew Brees vs. Tom Brady type of showdown that’s about to go down in New England on Sunday.

This game could come down to which team can make fewer mistakes offensively, and after what we saw in Week 4, I’m not sure which way to lean. I think any game that is played in New England, you tend to lean toward taking Bill Belichick and company. They have been obviously one of the NFL’s best home teams under Belichick, but most of that was done with Tom Brady and that dominant 20-year dynasty.

I still think the Patriots have a good enough defense to win a low-scoring game at home here. It’s hard picking them coming off of the type of drubbing we saw them take against Dallas in Week 4, but I’ll back the Pats at home in Week 5.

Prediction: Patriots win 17-13